After 6 weeks of football this is what we have learned:
The Arizona Cardinals play hard but still lose most of their games with a record of 1-5. Can they score enough points this week against the Seahawks?
The Kansas City Chiefs have Patrick Mahomes and have a top-10 defense and Travis Kelcie. Need I say more?
The Washington secondary is not good. Full stop, but neither is the New York Giants.
If Green Bay Packers QB Jordon Love has time to throw he could be a good QB. Will he have time against Denver’s Defense?
The Chicago Bears, New England Patriots, and New York Giants are the best match-ups for fantasy to roster a defense against.
Now, How can we take advantage of all this information in Week 7 and play for first?
If you’re curious to learn more about what I mean by playing for first, check out further details here. “Playing For First’ in NFL.”
So let go!
Fun Stuff!
Monday recap from Sunday slates will be out on Monday afternoon below:
Here’s My Criteria for Quarterback:
1) Can they put up 325 passing yards
2) Can they throw for 3 TD (When you add criteria 1 and 2 together, that gets me to 28 DK points)
3) Can they rush for 20 yards if so (All 3 criteria together put me over 30 DK points
I landed on Joe Burrow being the guy in Week 8 and low-owned by the field. My Lineup builds for the main slate on DraftKings will be centered around Patrick Mchomes and his pass-catcher.
Winning the MillyMaker often requires thinking outside the box, and I construct rosters with a target outcome of 214 points.
The success of this approach varies—sometimes it proves effective, while other times it doesn’t. But, I am playing for first place. If you’re curious to learn more about what I mean by this, check out further details here. “Playing For First’ in NFL.”
One of my Week 7 lineups:
Quarterback: Patrick Mahomes ($8,300)
- Season Total: In the current season, Mahomes has accumulated a total of 116.1 fantasy points, averaging 19.4 points per game. He is ranked fourth at his position and seventh overall in the NFL.
- Past Three Games: Over the past three games, Mahomes has connected on 79 of 111 passes for 790 yards, throwing for four touchdowns with three interceptions. He has also rushed for 82 yards on 13 carries, accumulating 49.7 fantasy points during that period, averaging 16.6 points per game.
- Past Five Games: In his last five games, Mahomes has earned 96.6 fantasy points, averaging 19.3 points per game. He completed 132-of-185 passes for 1,367 yards, with nine touchdowns and four interceptions. Additionally, he has rushed for 140 yards on 23 carries.
- Week 3 vs. Chicago Bears: Mahomes had a season-high performance in Week 3 against the Chicago Bears, accumulating 25.7 fantasy points. In that game, he went 24-of-33 (72.7%) for 272 yards, with 3 touchdowns, and no interceptions. He also carried the ball 3 times for 28 yards.
Based on the current odds and prop bets, it is anticipated that Patrick Mahomes will have a strong performance against the Chargers. His passing yards prop bet is set at Over 278.5 (-115), surpassing his season average of 265.5 yards per game.
This could be advantageous for Mahomes, as the Chargers’ defense is ranked 30th in the league regarding pass yards per attempt allowed. I predict he will have at least 30 DK points against the sorry defense of the Chargers.
Running Backs: Kenneth Walker III ($7,000) & Brian Robinson ($5,800)
Kenneth Walker III
- Season Total: In 2023, Kenneth Walker III has accumulated a total of 80.5 fantasy points, averaging 16.1 points per game. He is ranked seventh at his position and 31st in the league in terms of fantasy points.
- Past Three Games: Over his past three games, Walker has been performing well. He’s had 54 carries for 238 yards and four touchdowns, along with 86 receiving yards on six catches from six targets. During this period, he has accumulated 56.4 fantasy points, averaging 18.8 points per game.
- Best Game of the Season – Week 3 vs. Carolina Panthers: In Week 3, Kenneth Walker III had his best game of the season, accumulating 27.6 fantasy points. His stat line for that game included 18 carries for 97 yards and 2 touchdowns, as well as 3 receptions for 59 yards.
Kenneth Walker III is expensive and the chalk play this week, but his matchup against Arizona makes him a worthwhile investment. The Cardinals have proven to struggle against running backs this season, as demonstrated by their performances against Saquon Barkley, Christian McCaffrey, and Kyren Williams. Considering that Arizona ranks third in most Fantasy points allowed to opposing running backs, Walker is likely to have a successful outing. Plus, his recent touchdown streak and ability to contribute in the passing game further enhance his value. With Zach Charbonnet’s absence in practice, Walker could potentially receive a significant workload.
Brian Robinson
- Season Total: In 2023, Brian Robinson Jr. has accumulated a total of 73.5 fantasy points, averaging 12.3 points per game. He is ranked 10th at his position and 38th overall in the NFL in terms of fantasy points.
- Past Three Games: Over his past three games, Robinson has earned 27.0 fantasy points, averaging 9.0 points per game. He’s had 30 carries for 86 yards and one touchdown, along with 64 receiving yards on eight catches from eight targets, including one receiving touchdown.
- Past Five Games: In his last five games, Robinson has accumulated 60.9 fantasy points, averaging 12.2 points per game. He recorded 58 carries for 243 yards and three touchdowns, in addition to 106 receiving yards on 10 catches from 11 targets, with one receiving touchdown.
- Best Game of the Season – Week 2 vs. Denver Broncos: In Week 2, Brian Robinson Jr. had his best game of the season, earning 26.9 fantasy points. His stat line for that game included 18 carries for 87 yards and 2 rushing touchdowns, as well as 2 receptions for 42 receiving yards.
I am taking a leap of faith here with roistering Brian Robinson, because of Antonio Gibson and their snap split (27-20) in favor of Robinson. I am highly impressed with Robinson’s performance this month, as he has caught all eight of his targets and even made a crucial touchdown reception last week. He has shown great versatility as a back. Based on this, and him probably being ignored by the field. I can see him having a 20-point outing against the Giants.
Wide Receivers: Christian Watson ($5,600), Michael Wilson ($3,800), & Wan Dale Robinson ($3,600)
Christian Watson
- Season Total: In 2023, Watson has accumulated a total of 17.1 fantasy points, averaging 8.6 points per game. He is ranked 197th overall in the NFL and 79th at his position in terms of fantasy points.
- Two Games This Year: In the two games he’s played in the 2023 season, Watson has earned 17.1 fantasy points. He has recorded 116 receiving yards on five catches from 11 targets and has scored one touchdown.
- Most Recent Game (Week 5 vs. Las Vegas Raiders): In his most recent game against the Las Vegas Raiders, Watson had a performance that resulted in 8.6 fantasy points. His stat line for that game included three catches for 91 receiving yards.
Watson has showcased impressive performance since his season debut in Week 4, consistently achieving either a touchdown or over 90 receiving yards in every game since then. I expect him in this game to top over 25 fantasy points against Denver.
Michael Wilson
- Season Total: In 2023, Michael Wilson has accumulated a total of 43.7 fantasy points, averaging 7.3 points per game. He is ranked 38th at his position and 96th in the NFL in terms of fantasy points.
- Past Three Games: Over his past three games, Wilson has averaged 9.2 fantasy points, accumulating a total of 27.6 points during this period. He has recorded 156 receiving yards on 11 catches from 13 targets and scored two touchdowns.
- Past Five Games: In his last five games, Wilson has accumulated 41.8 fantasy points, averaging 8.4 points per game. He has made 16 receptions on 18 targets for 298 yards.
- Best Game of the Season – Week 4 vs. San Francisco 49ers: In Week 4, Michael Wilson had his best game of the season, earning 19.6 fantasy points. He recorded seven receptions for 76 yards and scored two touchdowns during that game.
Michael Wilson is in line for a breakout performance and a favorable Week 7 road match-up against the Seahawks. This guy is good if given the chance.
Wan’Dale Robinson
- Season Total: In 2023, Wan’Dale Robinson has accumulated a total of 14.9 fantasy points, averaging 3.7 points per game. He is ranked 212th overall in the NFL and 84th at his position in terms of fantasy points.
- Past Three Games: Over his past three games, Robinson has averaged 4.3 fantasy points, accumulating a total of 12.8 points during this period. He has recorded 120 receiving yards on 18 catches from 20 targets, although he has not scored any touchdowns.
- Best Game of the Season – Last Week vs. Buffalo Bills: In his best game of the season, Robinson earned 6.2 fantasy points. He had eight receptions for 62 yards during the game against the Buffalo Bills.
With Tyrod Taylor as QB, Wan’Dale has an opportunity to be a difference-maker for New York in this game. Robinson has been carving out a larger role in the Giants’ offense. I expect Tyrod to have to throw the ball more.
Tight End: Travis Kelce ($8,000)
- Season Total: In 2023, Travis Kelce has accumulated a total of 52.6 fantasy points, averaging 10.5 points per game. He is ranked at the top of his position and is 72nd overall in the NFL in terms of fantasy points.
- Past Three Games: Over his past three games, Kelce has averaged 10.4 fantasy points, accumulating a total of 31.1 points during this period. He has recorded 251 receiving yards on 25 catches from 29 targets and has scored one touchdown.
- Best Game of the Season – Week 3 vs. Chicago Bears: In Week 3, Travis Kelce had his best game of the season, earning 12.9 fantasy points. His stat line for that game included seven receptions for 69 yards and one touchdown.
Kelce is my number 1 TE for week 7, because of his low ownership. FantasyPros positions him as the second-best tight end for week 7. Additionally, Fox Sports predicts that Kelce’s receiving yards will likely fall within the range of 74.5 against the Chargers. Moreover, both ClutchPoints and UPI rank Kelcie as the top tight end for Week 7. Because of his high price tag on DraftKings, most players will steer clear of him, making him a great roster pick.
Flex: Curtis Samuel ($4,000)
- Season Total: In 2023, Curtis Samuel has accumulated a total of 48.5 fantasy points, averaging 8.1 points per game. He is ranked 29th at his position and 85th in the NFL in terms of fantasy points.
- Past Three Games: Over his past three games, Samuel has averaged 11.3 fantasy points, accumulating a total of 33.9 points during this period. He has recorded 17 receptions on 19 targets for 158 receiving yards.
- Past Five Games: In his last five games, Samuel has accumulated 42.5 fantasy points, averaging 8.5 points per game. He has recorded 22 catches on 26 targets for 231 receiving yards and two touchdowns.
- Best Game of the Season – Week 5 vs. Chicago Bears: In Week 5, Curtis Samuel had his best game of the season, earning 12.5 fantasy points. His stat line for that game included six receptions for 65 yards and one touchdown.
According to a recent article from Fox Sports, Samuel has been a magnet for the end zone.
Defense: Cleveland Browns ($3,300)
The Brown’s defense should fair well against the Indiana Colts. Slam Dunk.
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How I did Boom or Bust; “Monday Morning Quarterbacking”
Quarterback: Patrick Mahomes ($8,300) – 37.89 DK points
Running Backs: Kenneth Walker III ($7,000) -16.10 DK points & Brian Robinson ($5,800) – 8.3 DK points
Wide Receivers: Christian Watson ($5,600), – 5.70 DK points Michael Wilson ($3,800), – 5.60 DK points & Wan Dale Robinson ($3,600) – 3.2 DK points
Tight End: Travis Kelce ($8,000) – 38.90 DK points
Flex: Curtis Samuel ($4,000) – 6.5 DK points
Defense: Cleveland Browns ($3,300) -16 DK points
This lineup missed the mark by a mile, I should constantly remind myself that this year’s DFS play is different than in the past. I should pay down in the running back and TE positions (the exception is Travis Kelce) and pay up at WR.
Back to the drawing board as I continue the transition to MME play.
On to week 8, we go!
Watch this Space!
The Milly Winner
