When I think of roistering a Quarterback for a DFS slate I think about which QB on that slate can get me 30 DK points and win the slate for me. Monday recap is below:
Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow (9) drops back to pass during a game between the Tennessee Titans and Cincinnati Bengals, October 1, 2023, at Nissan Stadium in Nashville, Tennessee. (Matthew Maxey/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
@LucasWencl's Starts of the Week:
— The Fantasy Football Fellas (@fffellas) October 27, 2023
QB: Joe Burrow (@ SF)
RB: Gus Edwards (@ ARI)
WR: Nico Collins (@ CAR)
TE: George Kittle (vs CIN) pic.twitter.com/PnUPO2CFaR
Here’s My Criteria for Quarterback:
1) Can they put up 325 passing yards
2) Can they throw for 3 TD (When you add criteria 1 and 2 together, that gets me to 28 DK points)
3) Can they rush for 20 yards if so (All 3 criteria together put me over 30 DK points
I landed on Joe Burrow being the guy in Week 8 and low-owned by the field. My Lineup builds for the main slate on DraftKings will be centered around Joe Burrow and his pass-catchers.
Winning the MillyMaker often requires thinking outside the box, and I construct rosters with a target outcome of 214 points.
The success of this approach varies—sometimes it proves effective, while other times it doesn’t. But, I am playing for first place. If you’re curious to learn more about what I mean by this, check out further details here. “Playing For First’ in NFL.”
Here’s One of My Lineups in Week 8
Quarterback: Joe Burrow ($6,000)
- Burrow’s performance through the air this season:
- Passing yards: 1,230 yards in total, averaging 205.0 yards per game.
- Completion rate: 63.4% (147 completions out of 232 attempts).
- Touchdown passes: Burrow has thrown seven touchdown passes.
- Interceptions: He has thrown four interceptions.
- Joe Burrow’s rushing performance:
- Rushing attempts: Burrow has rushed 14 times.
- Rushing yards: He has gained 14 yards on the ground.
- Rushing average: Burrow is averaging 2.3 yards per game when rushing.
- The San Francisco 49ers’ defense:
- The 49ers have allowed an average of 223.6 passing yards per game, which ranks them 16th in the league in terms of pass defense.
Running Backs: Christian McCaffrey ($9,200) & Isiah Pacheco ($6,100)
Christian McCaffrey
- McCaffrey Overall 2023 Performance:
- McCaffrey leads his position and is ranked fifth overall in the league with 144.6 fantasy points.
- He averages an impressive 20.7 fantasy points per game.
- Last Three Games:
- Over his past three games, McCaffrey has averaged 14.2 fantasy points per game, totaling 42.6 points.
- He has rushed for 139 yards on 45 carries, scoring two touchdowns, and has gained 87 yards receiving on eight catches out of nine targets, with two more touchdowns.
- Last Five Games:
- In his last five games, McCaffrey has averaged 20.4 fantasy points per game, accumulating a total of 102.2 points.
- He has rushed for 330 yards on 83 carries, finding the end zone six times. He has also recorded 192 receiving yards on 20 catches from 22 targets, with three additional touchdowns.
- Best Game:
- McCaffrey’s best game of the season occurred in Week 4 against the Arizona Cardinals.
- In that game, he had an outstanding performance, scoring 41.7 fantasy points. He rushed 20 times for 106 yards and three touchdowns, while also making 7 receptions for 71 yards and one more touchdown.
Isaih Pacheco
- Overall 2023 Performance:
- Pacheco has accumulated 82.2 fantasy points in the season, averaging 11.7 points per game.
- He is ranked eighth at his position, and he’s the 34th highest-scoring player in the league.
- Last Three Games:
- Over his past three games, Pacheco has rushed for 149 yards on 45 carries and scored one touchdown.
- He has also gained 73 receiving yards on 11 catches from 11 targets, with one receiving touchdown.
- Pacheco has accumulated 34.2 fantasy points during this three-game period, averaging 11.4 points per game.
- Last Five Games:
- In his last five games, Pacheco has rushed for 326 yards on 80 carries, scoring three touchdowns on the ground.
- He has also recorded 132 receiving yards on 16 catches from 17 targets, with one receiving touchdown.
- Over this five-game period, Pacheco has accumulated 69.8 fantasy points, averaging 14.0 points per game.
- Best Game:
- Pacheco’s best game of the season occurred in Week 4 against the New York Jets.
- In that game, he scored 21.8 fantasy points with a stat line of 20 carries for 115 rushing yards and one rushing touchdown, along with 3 receptions for 43 receiving yards.
Wide Receivers: Ja’Marr Chase ($8,100), Kendrick Bourne ($4,700), & Rashee Rice ($5,000)
Ja’Marr Chase
- Overall 2023 Performance:
- Ja Marr Chase has accumulated 73.8 fantasy points in the season, which averages to 12.3 points per game.
- He’s ranked 10th at his position (wide receiver) and 47th overall in the NFL.
- Last Three Games:
- Over his past three games, Chase has 28 receptions on 41 targets, gaining 345 yards.
- He has averaged 17.5 fantasy points per game during this period, totaling 52.5 points.
- Last Five Games:
- In his last five games, Chase has gained 517 receiving yards on 45 catches out of 64 targets.
- He scored three touchdowns during this time and averaged 13.9 fantasy points per game, accumulating a total of 69.7 points.
- Best Game:
- In his best game of the season, which was in Week 5 against the Arizona Cardinals, Ja’Marr Chase had an outstanding performance.
- He scored 37.2 fantasy points in that game, with 15 receptions, 192 receiving yards, and three touchdowns.
Kendrick Bourne
- Overall 2023 Performance:
- Bourne has accumulated 53.4 fantasy points in the season, averaging 7.6 points per game.
- He is ranked 28th at his position (likely wide receiver) and 84th in the league.
- Last Three Games:
- Over his past three games, Bourne has averaged 8.0 fantasy points per game, totaling 23.9 points.
- He has gained 195 receiving yards on 18 catches out of 23 targets, and he has scored one touchdown during this period.
- Last Five Games:
- In his last five games, Bourne has accumulated 6.4 fantasy points on average per game, totaling 32.1 points.
- He has recorded 24 receptions on 31 targets, gaining 277 receiving yards.
- Best Game:
- Bourne’s best game of the season occurred in Week 1 against the Philadelphia Eagles.
- In that game, he scored 18.4 fantasy points with six receptions for 64 yards and two touchdowns
Rashee Rice
- Overall 2023 Performance:
- Rice has accumulated 48.2 fantasy points in the season, averaging 6.9 points per game.
- He is ranked 40th at his position (likely wide receiver) and 104th in the league.
- Last Three Games:
- Over his past three games, Rice has averaged 9.5 fantasy points per game, totaling 28.5 points.
- He has gained 165 receiving yards on 13 catches out of 15 targets, scoring two touchdowns during this period.
- Last Five Games:
- In his last five games, Rice has accumulated an average of 7.5 fantasy points per game, totaling 37.6 points.
- He has recorded 21 receptions on 27 targets, gaining 256 receiving yards during this five-game period.
- Best Game:
- Rice’s best game of the season occurred recently against the Los Angeles Chargers.
- In that game, he scored 12.0 fantasy points with five receptions for 60 yards and one touchdown.
Tight End: Trey McBride ($2,800)
- Overall 2023 Performance:
- McBride has accumulated 17.0 fantasy points in the season, averaging 2.4 points per game.
- He is ranked 33rd at his position (likely tight end) and 223rd in the league.
- Last Three Games:
- Over his past three games, McBride has averaged 3.6 fantasy points per game, totaling 10.8 points.
- He has gained 108 receiving yards on nine catches out of 14 targets during this period, but he hasn’t scored any touchdowns.
- Last Five Games:
- In his last five games, McBride has averaged 2.3 fantasy points per game, accumulating a total of 11.5 points.
- He has recorded 115 receiving yards on 11 catches from 16 targets, but he still hasn’t scored any touchdowns.
- Best Game:
- McBride’s best game of the season occurred in Week 6 against the Los Angeles Rams.
- In that game, he scored 6.2 fantasy points with four receptions for 62 receiving yards.
Flex: Drake London ($5,100)
- Overall 2023 Performance:
- London has accumulated 51.2 fantasy points in the season, averaging 7.3 points per game.
- He is ranked 34th at his position (likely wide receiver) and 96th in the league.
- Last Three Games:
- Over his past three games, London has averaged 8.9 fantasy points per game, totaling 26.6 points.
- He has gained 257 receiving yards on 21 catches out of 28 targets during this period, but he hasn’t scored any touchdowns.
- Last Five Games:
- In his last five games, London has averaged 7.7 fantasy points per game, accumulating a total of 38.5 points.
- He has recorded 316 receiving yards on 26 catches from 41 targets, and he has scored one touchdown during this five-game period.
- Best Game:
- London’s best game of the season occurred in Week 2 against the Green Bay Packers.
- In that game, he scored 12.7 fantasy points with six receptions for 67 receiving yards and one touchdown.
Defense: Jacksonville Jaguars ($2,800)
The Jaguars’ price tag says it all, they are ranked 14 this week according to 4for4’s defense rankings.
This lineup is diffidently a dart-throw lineup. I plan to incorporate some of these players into my other lineups by mixing and matching. This is by no means my only lineup. Stay tuned to see how I do.
Watch this Space!
How I did Boom or Bust; “Monday Morning Quarterbacking”
Hello, all it’s a Monday and time to look back and say to myself, what I should’ve, could’ve, and would’ve done differently, as a DFS player.
I used to spend most of my time looking forward to the next slate, the next season, and so forth. I am finding it equally important to stop, take a breath, and start looking back at the process that leads me to a winning or losing lineup.
Playing fantasy sports is a journey, not a race. This is my creed I will think about on every Monday Recap. Looking back before looking forward.
Rather than going through every position, I’ll focus on key lessons that can be learned, and maybe even some mistakes worth avoiding,
Winning a contest with over 300,000 entrants, like the standard $10-20 contests, requires a significant amount of positive variance.
However, it’s important to acknowledge that a considerable skill component is also at play when it comes to putting myself in a position to take advantage of that variance.
Three Factors I looked at during my analysis.The lineup, The stack, The chalk.
This lineup was in the money, but barely. I scored 161.52, the winner scored 237.66 DK points.
The Lineup
Was this lineup a smart build? close but, no.
I had some really smart plays on this lineup because of my unique roster construction at one position.
For instance, I used a running back as my bring-back instead of a tight end or wide receiver like most roster construction does in large field tourneys. I also used a single-stack build instead of a double-stack build. But at the same time, this lineup was not unique enough in other areas. I’ll dive into that below.
The Stack
The single stack build with Josh Jacobs paired with Ja’Marr Chase, I was betting on Chase getting most of the looks from his QB which he did. Jacobs was the second-highest QB to score on the slate with a score of 33.06 right behind Sam Howell who scored 34.98.
I chose McCaffrey as my bring-back because my thinking was the Bengals are a team that mostly likes to throw the ball and if they do score a lot of points who on the 49ers would have the opportunity to lead the come-back for the 49ers, you guessed, McCaffrey. He was the highest-scoring running back on the slate with 29.80 DK points.
My analysis of this pairing was spot on.
But the rest of the roster construction was a bit off, in the wide receiver position. In order to make this lineup work I needed to pay down in the wide receiver position.
I wanted a piece of the Kansas City vs Denver game and Rashee Rice ranks 8th in the NFL in yards per route run (names ahead of him are (Tyreek, Aiyuk, AJB, Nico, Kupp, Kelce, and Jefferson), plus his snap count is containing to increase. I knew he would be low-owned, but he only scored 9.6 DK points. Disappointing.
I was thinking that Kendrick Bourne who is New England’s leading receiver would fit nicely in this lineup. New England, playing against Miami, might be forced to throw the ball more, creating opportunities for Bourne to benefit from those passes and potentially have a high-scoring game.
Bourne was playing great he had scored a TD he was in the midst of having a massive game, but unfortunately, I do wish him well he suffered a torn ACL and had to leave the game.
Injuries happen and this injury hurt this lineup. But my process was good in this instance.
Paying down at the TE position was a smart play -Trey McBride – Was the 2nd highest scorer at 25.50 on the slate right behind George Kittle. He smashed his price of $2,800
In the flex position, I put in Drake London, which was a great pick, but, He had to leave the game because he sustained a groin injury. He was on pace to have a good game before he left, he had five catches (on seven targets) for 55 yards.
The Jacksonville Jaguar’s defense paid off their price tag, they scored 11 DK points. A clap of hands on this one.
The Chalk
My chalk play was in the running back position with Isaiah Pacheco, he put up a snowflake score. Kansas City Chiefs talked about the need to establish the run, and I wanted exposure to the Kansas City game. But the Chiefs had a terrible outing.
Pacheco failed to record double-digit carries for the first time since Week 1. He scored 6.7. Disappointing
Overall my process was decent, the injuries to key players on this lineup cost me a higher score and more money..
On to week 9, we go!
Watch this Space!
The Milly Winner
