2023 – DraftKings Fantasy Lineup For Sunday, Week 11 – November 19

Hey Folks, I hope you had a good Week 10. Week 10 was all about rostering players around the game environment. I was looking at Game Script, Home vs Away, Team Pace, Matchup Analysis, Point spread, Over and Under, and Getting 4-5 spots on the roster correct through stacking.

Week 11 brings a different animal to my thinking. I still want to get 4-5 spots on my roster correct through stacking. But, my plan in Week 11 is to over-stack and skinny-stack a game.

Fun Stuff!

Monday recap from Sunday slates will be out on Monday afternoon below:

🏈 I’m focusing on overstacking three key NFL matchups this week – the Cardinals vs. Texans, the 49ers vs. TB, and the Bears vs. Lions.

The game I will feature here is around the Bears vs. Lions. A noteworthy insight revolves around the impressive combined performances of Justin Fields, Cole Kmet, and DJ Moore in their last two games together, accumulating a remarkable 102 and 98 DraftKings (DK) points respectively.

This averages out to an impressive 30-33 points per player, all while maintaining a reasonable combined salary of 16.6k.

The Lions, being a team susceptible to the passing game, create an opportunity for the Bears to capitalize.

If the Bears perform well, it could force the Lions into a high-scoring shootout, potentially making this game a DFS gem that the broader fantasy football community might not have fully recognized.

This strategic approach considers the potential for hidden value in a game that could deliver unexpected fantasy goodness.

Here are My Criteria for Roistering based on the Game Environment, Script, and Over-Stacking:

1) Game Script – What is the likely flow of the game -For example, teams trailing may pass more, leading to increased opportunities for wide receivers and quarterbacks. Or do they run more or slow the game down leading to more opportunities for running backs?

2) Home vs. Away – Some teams perform better at home, while others excel on the road. I pay attention to this stat.

3) Matchup Analysis– I consider the Defense vs. Position (DvP) stats to understand how well or poorly a defense performs against the specific position.

4) Team Pace – Teams with a fast pace generally run more plays, providing more opportunities for fantasy points.

5) Point Spread -Games with close point spreads may be more competitive and could result in higher fantasy production as teams strive to outscore each other.

6) Total Game Points (Over/Under) -Games with higher over/under totals suggest the potential for more scoring opportunities, which can be beneficial for fantasy production.

7) Over-Stacking – Stacking one game with 4-5 players. A skinny stack from another game. I am looking to get 1 or 2 things right to leapfrog the field.

Winning the MillyMaker often requires thinking outside the box, and I construct rosters with a target outcome of 214 points.

The success of this approach varies—sometimes it proves effective, while other times it doesn’t. But, I am playing for first place. If you’re curious to learn more about what I mean by this, check out further details here. “Playing For First’ in NFL.”

Here’s One of My Lineups in Week 11

Quarterback: Justin Fields ($6,900)

1. Season Total: In 2023, Justin fields a Season total: of 6 interceptions, 1,201 yards, QB ratings of 91.6, and 11 touchdowns.
2. Past Three Games: 58 passing yards, 0 touchdowns, and 1 interception against Minnesota Vikings; 282 passing yards, 4 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions against Washington Football Team; 335 passing yards, 4 touchdowns, and 1 interception against Denver Broncos.
3. Past Five Games: 216 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception against Green Bay Packers; 211 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 2 interceptions against Tampa Bay Buccaneers; 99 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception against Kansas City Chiefs; 335 passing yards, 4 touchdowns, and 1 interception against Denver Broncos; 58 passing yards, 0 touchdowns, and 1 interception against Minnesota Vikings.
4. Best Game of the Season – Week 4 vs. Denver Broncos: 335 passing yards, 4 touchdowns, and 1 interception against Denver.

Justin Fields has shown both positive and challenging performances throughout the season. His best game against the Denver Broncos demonstrated his ability to have a significant impact on the game with a high passing yardage and multiple touchdowns.

Running Backs: Jahmyr Gibbs ($7,000) & Devin Singletary ($5,300)

Jahmyr Gibbs

1. Season Performance: Jahmyr Gibbs is currently ranked 21st at his position (likely running back) and 60th in the league in fantasy points with 91.6 points, averaging 13.1 points per game. His season performance positions him as a solid fantasy option, especially considering his ranking.
2. Last Three Games: Over his last three games, Gibbs has been highly productive, averaging an impressive 22.2 fantasy points per game, totaling 66.7 points. During this period, he has rushed for 297 yards on 51 carries with four touchdowns. Additionally, he has contributed in the passing game with 130 yards on 17 receptions from 20 targets.
3. Last Five Games: In the past five games, Gibbs has averaged 16.0 fantasy points per game, totaling 80.0 points. He has been a dual threat, rushing for 417 yards on 76 carries with four touchdowns and catching 22 passes for 143 yards on 27 targets.
4. Best Game: Gibbs’ best game of the season was in Week 8 against the Las Vegas Raiders when he accumulated 24.9 fantasy points. In that game, he had 26 carries for 152 rushing yards and one rushing touchdown. He also contributed in the passing game with 5 receptions for 37 receiving yards.

Jahmyr Gibbs has been a consistent and productive fantasy option in the 2023 season, especially in recent weeks where he has demonstrated the ability to make an impact both as a runner and a receiver. His best game performance indicates his potential for explosive outings. I expect him to continue to shine against the Chicago defense.

Devin Singletary

1. Season Performance: Devin Singletary is currently ranked 41st at his position (likely running back) and 136th overall in the league in fantasy points with 51.4 points, averaging 5.7 points per game. His season performance suggests that he’s been a lower-tier fantasy option.
2. Last Three Games: Over his last three games, Singletary has shown improvement, averaging 9.7 fantasy points per game, totaling 29.0 points. During this period, he has rushed for 206 yards on 53 carries with one touchdown. He has also contributed in the passing game with 24 yards receiving on five catches from six targets.
3. Last Five Games: In the past five games, Singletary has averaged 7.0 fantasy points per game, totaling 35.2 points. He has rushed for 264 yards on 65 carries with one touchdown and added 28 yards receiving on six catches from nine targets.
4. Best Game: Singletary’s best game of the season was in the recent game against the Cincinnati Bengals, where he finished with 26.1 fantasy points. In that game, he had an impressive stat line with 30 carries for 150 rushing yards and one rushing touchdown.

Devin Singletary’s fantasy performance has been modest, but his recent performance, especially in the last game, has shown promise. The fact that he had a standout performance in the last game suggests he could be gaining momentum. He is in a position to have a breakout game against the Arizona Cardinals.

Wide Receivers: DJ Moore ($5,600), Marquise Brown ($5,300), & Romeo Doubs ($5,200)

DJ Moore

1. Season Performance: has played in 10 games so far in the 2023 NFL season. He has recorded 52 receptions, 793 receiving yards, and 5 touchdowns with an average of 15.3 yards per reception.
2. Last Three Games: Over his last three games, DJ Moore has recorded 8 receptions, 172 receiving yards, and 0 touchdowns.
3. Last Five Games: In the past five games, In the last 5 games, he has recorded 20 receptions, 315 receiving yards, and 2 touchdowns 
4. Best Game: DJ Moore’s best game of the season was against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on October 22, 2023. He recorded 7 receptions, 69 receiving yards, and 1 touchdown.

DJ Moore has been a consistent contributor to the team’s passing game throughout the season, with a notable performance against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers being his best game so far. In the last three games, he has continued to be involved in the offense. Justin Fields is back from Injury and this will be his number-one target.

Marquise Brown

1. Season Performance: Marquise Brown is currently ranked 31st at his position (likely wide receiver) and 92nd overall in the league in fantasy points with 73.7 points, averaging 7.4 points per game. His season performance suggests that he’s been a lower-tier fantasy option among wide receivers.
2. Last Three Games: Over his last three games, Brown has accumulated 14.5 fantasy points, averaging 4.8 points per game. During this period, he has recorded 85 yards receiving on 11 catches from 21 targets, along with one touchdown.
3. Last Five Games: In the past five games, Brown has averaged 4.6 fantasy points per game, totaling 22.8 points. He has accumulated 168 yards receiving on 18 catches from 39 targets, with one touchdown.
4. Best Game: Brown’s best game of the season was in Week 5 against the Cincinnati Bengals when he finished with 12.1 fantasy points. In that game, he had four receptions for 61 receiving yards and one touchdown.

Marquise Brown’s fantasy performance has been modest, with his best game providing a glimpse of his potential to contribute. I think a lot of fantasy managers will overlook roistering him in their lineup. Which makes him a great GPP play

Romeo Doubs

1. Season Performance: Romeo Doubs is currently ranked 34th at his position (likely wide receiver) and 99th overall in the league in fantasy points with 70.3 points, averaging 7.8 points per game. His season performance suggests that he’s been a lower-tier fantasy option among wide receivers.
2. Last Three Games: Over his last three games, Doubs has accumulated 20.5 fantasy points, averaging 6.8 points per game. During this period, he has recorded 85 yards receiving on 10 catches from 17 targets, with two touchdowns.
3. Last Five Games: In the past five games, Doubs has averaged 6.0 fantasy points per game, totaling 29.9 points. He has accumulated 119 yards receiving on 13 catches from 26 targets, with three touchdowns.
4. Best Game: Doubs’ best game of the season was in Week 1 against the Chicago Bears when he finished with 14.6 fantasy points. In that game, he had four receptions for 26 receiving yards and two touchdowns.

Romeo Doubs’ fantasy performance has been modest, with his best game coming in the season opener. .While his average points per game are relatively low, the potential for touchdowns, as seen in his best game, makes him a viable option in this matchup. He is a great GPP play.

Tight End: Cole Kmet ($4,100)

1. Season Performance: 2023 NFL season. Cole Kmet has recorded 46 receptions, 419 yard an average of 41.9 receiving yards per game so far, and 5 touchdowns.
2. Last Three Games: Over his last three games, Kmet had 21 catches for 179 yards and 2 touchdowns 
3. Last Five Games: In the past five games, Kmet had 46 receptions for 419 yards and 5 touchdowns.
4. Best Game: his best game of the season was against the Denver Broncos on October 1, 2023. He recorded 7 receptions, 85 receiving yards, and 2 touchdowns.

Cole Kmet has been actively involved in the passing game, providing consistent production over the course of the season. His recent performances in the last three and five games have shown an uptick in receptions and yardage, with two touchdowns in the last three games. Justin Fields is back, I expect him to be a pivotal part of the offense for Chicago.

Flex: Deebo Samuel ($6,300)

1. Season Performance: Deebo Samuel is currently ranked 39th at his position (likely wide receiver) and 112th overall in the league in fantasy points with 63.6 points, averaging 9.1 points per game. His season performance positions him in the mid-range among wide receivers.
2. Last Three Games: Over his last three games, Samuel has accumulated 21.5 fantasy points, averaging 7.2 points per game. During this period, he has recorded 85 yards receiving on seven catches from eight targets. However, he has not scored any touchdowns in these recent games.
3. Last Five Games: Samuel has averaged 8.2 fantasy points per game in the past five games, totaling 41.2 points. He has been targeted 20 times, making 13 receptions for 214 yards.
4. Best Game: Samuel’s best game of the season was in Week 3 against the New York Giants when he finished with 19.1 fantasy points. In that game, he had six receptions for 129 receiving yards and one touchdown.

Deebo Samuel has consistently contributed to fantasy points throughout the season, with his best game showing his ability to make significant plays. While his recent performances have been more modest, his role in the offense and potential for explosive plays make him a valuable fantasy asset.

Defense: Steelers ($3,500)

The Pittsburgh Steelers’ defense has allowed an average of 20.2 points per game in the 2023 season, which ranks them 11th in the league. But this week the Steelers will face the worst throwing QB in the league in the Cleveland Browns QB Thompson-Robinson. I can see the Steelers D., having several picks in this game.

The Steelers like to employ a Tampa-2 def. Tomlins’s favorite coverage. They use Tampa-2 because it’s a great way to show Cover-2 before rotating to something else pre-snap. This coverage can fool a lot of QBs who think they can throw between the safeties or into the window along the sideline. I can see the Steelers D., having several picks in this game.

Besides, Tampa-2, they utilize cover-7, or (bracket) coverage, which is used when a defense wants to create a +1 advantage personnel on one side of the football and take away their opponent’s ability to pass the ball to that team’s best player. Besides all of this, they have TJ Watts. 🙂 If the Steelers can score, it will force the Cleveland QB to throw more.

This is by no means my only lineup. Stay tuned to see how I do. I will be mixing and matching players, centered around the Over Stacking.

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How I did Boom or Bust; “Monday Morning Quarterbacking”

Hello, all it’s a Monday and time to look back and say to myself, what I should’ve, could’ve, and would’ve done differently, as a DFS player.

I used to spend most of my time looking forward to the next slate, the next season, and so forth. I am finding it equally important to stop, take a breath, and start looking back at the process that led me to a winning or losing lineup.

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 😄These Players Made Me Look Good:

Justin fields –1 PaTD, 169 PaYds, 104 RuYds, 1 100+Rush (DK points 24.16)
Devin Singletary – 1 RuTD, 6 RecYds, 112 RuYds, 2 REC, 1 100+Rush (DK points 22.80)
DJ Moore – 1 RecTD, 96 RecYds, 7 REC (DK points 22.60)
Jahmyr Gibbs – 1 RuTD, 56 RecYds, 36 RuYds, 6 REC (DK points 21.50)

😢These Players Made Me Lose My Wallet:

Cole Kmet – 20 RecYds, 3 REC (DK points 5.00)
Romeo Doubs – 1 RecTD, 53 RecYds, 5 REC (DK points 16.30)
Marquise Brown – 18 RecYds, -6 RuYds, 2 REC (DK points 3.20)
Deebo Samuel – 3 RecYds, -1 RuYds, 3 REC (DK points 9.20)
Steelers – 1 SACK, 1 INT, 1 7-13 PA (DK points 7.0)

I had more things go wrong with this lineup than right. Do I like my build? “Hind Site is 20/20.” Yes, Here’s why. First I’ll say I won’t change my process.

The idea behind winning large-field GPPs is to put together a group of players in a game who could hit for big scores. The Milly winner this week did the opposite of that. So what, I’m here for the long haul.

The winner of the Milly just picked players instead of picking a block of players for his roster. Maybe this was a week that called for that. I rather stick to my process and pick a block of players. Picking a Block of players has proven over the years to be more successful.

The Block of players I chose was Justin Field (Chi), Cole Kmet (Chi), and DJ Moore (Chi) with bring-back Jahmyr Gibbs (Det). My Skinny stack was Marquise brown (Ari) and Devin Singletary (Hou)

Brock Purdy (DK points 29.72) was the winning QB on the Milly, I had several lineups with him and Aiyuk, (DK points -29.50), and those lineups made me money, but, I am playing for first so back to this one.

I brought up Brock Purdy and Aiyuk because I wanted some exposure to that game. I got there by saving some salary on picking Deebo Samuel, whose game was less than desirable.

Romeo Doub was my one-off, projected good and fit in this lineup.

Now we get to defense, not knowing much about the QB. Dorian Thompson-Robinson’s only start this year, he threw three interceptions, took four sacks, and led Cleveland to just three points. Seemed a no-brainer.

But the little scrappy guy turned out to be more than scrappy, he turned out to be pretty good in this game. So, the Steelers fell short of the mark and only scored 7 points. Thompson-Robinson is someone to watch In the future.

But, I’ll Continue My Same Process!

On to week 12, we go!

Watch this Space!

The Milly Winner