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2023 – DraftKings Fantasy Lineup For Sunday, Week 12 – November 26

BySJ Wilson

Hey Folks, I hope you had a good Week 11. Week 12 was all about rostering players around the game environment. I was looking at Game Script, Home vs Away, Team Pace, Matchup Analysis, Point spread, Over and Under, and Getting 4-5 spots on the roster correct through stacking.

Week 12 brings a different animal to my thinking. I still want to get 4-5 spots on my roster correct through stacking. But, my plan in Week 12 is to over-stack and skinny-stack a game.

Fun Stuff!

Monday recap from Sunday slates will be out on Monday afternoon below:

🏈Here are My Criteria for Roistering based on the Game Environment, Script, and Over-Stacking:

1) Game Script – What is the likely flow of the game -For example, teams trailing may pass more, leading to increased opportunities for wide receivers and quarterbacks. Or do they run more or slow the game down leading to more opportunities for running backs?

2) Home vs. Away – Some teams perform better at home, while others excel on the road. I pay attention to this stat.

3) Matchup Analysis– I consider the Defense vs. Position (DvP) stats to understand how well or poorly a defense performs against the specific position.

4) Team Pace – Teams with a fast pace generally run more plays, providing more opportunities for fantasy points.

5) Point Spread -Games with close point spreads may be more competitive and could result in higher fantasy production as teams strive to outscore each other.

6) Total Game Points (Over/Under) -Games with higher over/under totals suggest the potential for more scoring opportunities, which can be beneficial for fantasy production.

7) Over-Stacking – Stacking one game with 4-5 players. A skinny stack from another game. I want to get 1 or 2 things right to leapfrog the field.

Winning the MillyMaker often requires thinking outside the box, and I construct rosters with a target outcome of 214 points.

The success of this approach varies—sometimes it proves effective, while other times it doesn’t. But, I am playing for first place. If you’re curious to learn more about what I mean by this, check out further details here. “Playing For First’ in NFL.”

Here’s One of My Lineups in Week 12

Quarterback: C. J. Stroud ($7,700)

  1. Season Performance: C.J. Stroud has accumulated 191.0 fantasy points in the 2023 season, averaging an impressive 19.1 points per game.
  2. Past Three Games: In the most recent three games, Stroud displayed efficiency, connecting on 80 of 118 passes for 1,162 yards.
  3. Past Five Games: Over the last five games, Stroud showcased consistency, going 109-of-169 for 1,501 yards.
  4. Best Game (Week 9): C.J. Stroud’s standout performance occurred in Week 9 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. He holds the 12th position among quarterbacks and is ranked 14th overall in the league He recorded 10 touchdowns and five interceptions, adding 32 rushing yards on eight carries with two touchdowns, amassing 103.2 fantasy points at an average of 20.6 points per game. He finished with an exceptional 41.8 fantasy points, completing 30-of-42 passes with an impressive 71.4% accuracy. Stroud threw for 470 yards, including five touchdowns with zero interceptions, showcasing his elite quarterback skills.

C. .J. Stroud has been a consistent performer throughout the season, ranking among the top quarterbacks. I expect that to continue in this game against Jacksonville.

Running Backs: Jerome Ford($5,600) & Devin Singletary ($6,000)

Jerome Ford

  1. Season Performance: In the 2023 season, Jerome Ford has delivered a consistent performance, securing the 21st position at his position and ranking 59th overall in the league with a total of 101.2 fantasy points, averaging 10.1 points per game.
  2. Past Three Games: Over the recent three games, Ford has maintained a solid output, accumulating 28.5 fantasy points at an average of 9.5 points per game. His contributions include 49 carries for 182 yards and one touchdown, in addition to 43 receiving yards on eight catches from 13 targets.
  3. Past Five Games: Ford’s performance over the last five games reflects reliability, with an average of 9.6 fantasy points, totaling 47.8 points. This period includes 69 carries for 293 yards and two touchdowns, along with 65 receiving yards on 11 catches from 19 targets.
  4. Best Game (Week 2): Jerome Ford’s standout game of the season occurred in Week 2 against the Pittsburgh Steelers, where he accumulated 21.1 fantasy points. In this impressive performance, Ford contributed significantly with 16 carries for 106 yards, three receptions for 25 yards, and one touchdown.

Jerome Ford’s consistent contributions showcase his value on the field, with a notable peak in his best game against the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Devin Singletary

  1. Season Performance: Devin Singletary is currently ranked 41st at his position (likely running back) and 136th overall in the league in fantasy points with 51.4 points, averaging 5.7 points per game. His season performance suggests that he’s been a lower-tier fantasy option.
  2. Last Three Games: Over his last three games, Singletary has shown improvement, averaging 9.7 fantasy points per game, totaling 29.0 points. During this period, he has rushed for 206 yards on 53 carries with one touchdown. He has also contributed in the passing game with 24 yards receiving on five catches from six targets.
  3. Last Five Games: In the past five games, Singletary has averaged 7.0 fantasy points per game, totaling 35.2 points. He has rushed for 264 yards on 65 carries with one touchdown and added 28 yards receiving on six catches from nine targets.
  4. Best Game: Singletary’s best game of the season was in the recent game against the Cincinnati Bengals, where he finished with 26.1 fantasy points. In that game, he had an impressive stat line with 30 carries for 150 rushing yards and one rushing touchdown.

Devin Singletary is in a good spot to have a great game running the ball.

Wide Receivers: Tank Dell ($6,900), Christian Kirk ($5,700) Calvin Ridley ($6,000)

Tank Dell

  1. Season Performance: In the 2023 NFL season, Tank Dell has established himself as a noteworthy player, currently ranked 55th overall in the league and 13th at his position, accumulating a total of 105.8 fantasy points at an average of 11.8 points per game.
  2. Past Three Games: Over the recent three games, Dell has showcased his reliability, securing 20 receptions on 35 targets for a total of 319 yards. He has maintained an impressive average of 19.1 fantasy points during this period, accumulating a total of 57.4 points.
  3. Past Five Games: Dell’s performance over the last five games underscores his impact on the field, accumulating 392 yards receiving on 26 catches from 43 targets. He has contributed four touchdowns, amassing a total of 65.8 fantasy points at an average of 13.2 points per game.
  4. Best Game (Week 9): Tank Dell’s best game of the season occurred in Week 9 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, where he finished with an impressive 23.6 fantasy points. In this standout performance, Dell recorded six receptions for 114 yards and two touchdowns

Tank Dell’s performance of late has been spectacular. He has a good connection with his QB.

Christian Kirk

  1. Season Performance: Christian Kirk has accumulated 81.8 fantasy points in the 2023 NFL season, averaging 8.2 points per game. His performance places him 33rd at his position and 95th overall in the league.
  2. Past Three Games: Over the recent three games, Kirk has maintained an average of 5.9 fantasy points, accumulating a total of 17.8 points during this period. Despite not scoring any touchdowns, he managed to secure 198 receiving yards on 13 catches from 22 targets.
  3. Past Five Games: Kirk’s performance over the last five games has been consistent, amassing 337 yards receiving on 22 catches from 34 targets. He has contributed two touchdowns during this period, resulting in a total of 41.7 fantasy points at an average of 8.3 points per game.
  4. Best Game (Week 7): Christian Kirk’s standout performance occurred in Week 7 against the New Orleans Saints, where he picked up 13.0 fantasy points. In this game, Kirk recorded six catches for 90 yards and scored one touchdown, showcasing his ability to make impactful plays.

Christian Kirk’s contributions, particularly in his best game against the New Orleans Saints. I can see him having a better game this time around with him and his teammate Calvin Ridley catching a lot of passes from their QB Trever Lawrence.

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Calvin Ridley

  1. Season Performance: Calvin Ridley has accumulated 84.2 fantasy points in the 2023 NFL season, averaging 8.4 points per game. His performance places him 91st overall in the league and 29th at his position.
  2. Past Three Games: Over the recent three games, Ridley has demonstrated strong form, amassing 206 yards receiving on 15 catches from 22 targets. He has contributed two touchdowns during this period, resulting in an average of 11.5 fantasy points per game and a total of 34.4 points.
  3. Past Five Games: Ridley’s performance over the last five games has seen him accumulate 37.5 fantasy points, averaging 7.5 points per game. During this stretch, he secured 241 receiving yards on 20 catches from 34 targets and added two touchdowns to his season tally.
  4. Best Game (Last Week – vs. Tennessee Titans): In his best game of the season, which occurred last week against the Tennessee Titans, Calvin Ridley finished with an impressive 24.1 fantasy points. In this game, Ridley recorded seven catches for 103 yards and scored two touchdowns, showcasing his ability to make impactful contributions to his team’s success.

Calvin Ridley’s recent performances, particularly in his standout game against the Tennessee Titans, highlight his potential as a key playmaker for his team.

Tight End: David Njoku ($4,100)

  1. Season Performance: David Njoku has accumulated 53.3 fantasy points in the 2023 NFL season, averaging 5.3 points per game. His performance places him 137th overall in the league and 11th at his position.
  2. Past Three Games: Over the past three games, Njoku has demonstrated consistent contributions, amassing 140 yards receiving on 17 catches from 30 targets. He has found the end zone once during this period, resulting in an average of 6.7 fantasy points per game and a total of 20.0 points.
  3. Past Five Games: Looking at the broader trend over the last five games, Njoku has been a reliable target, securing 26 receptions on 47 targets for a total of 271 yards. His performance during this stretch has earned him 39.1 fantasy points, averaging 7.8 points per game.
  4. Best Game (Week 8 against the Seattle Seahawks): In his best game of the season, which occurred in Week 8 against the Seattle Seahawks, David Njoku had a standout performance. He accumulated 13.7 fantasy points, showcasing his skills with four receptions for 77 yards and one touchdown.

In the previous game with QB Thompson-Robinson, David Njoku was targeted 15 times. Given their successful connection in that matchup, I anticipate Thompson- Robinson relying on Njoku once more, especially considering the favorable matchup against Denver.

Flex: Wan’dale Robinson ($3,800)

  1. Season Performance: Wan’Dale Robinson has amassed 32.6 fantasy points in the 2023 NFL season, averaging 3.6 points per game. His overall ranking places him 203rd in the league and 82nd at his position.
  2. Past Three Games: Over the past three games, Robinson has been involved in the passing game, securing nine receptions on 12 targets for a total of 76 yards. Despite facing challenges, he has maintained an average of 4.6 fantasy points per game during this period, accumulating 13.8 points in total.
  3. Past Five Games: Looking at a broader trend over the last five games, Robinson has contributed with 10 receptions on 15 targets, resulting in 98 yards. His overall fantasy performance during this stretch amounts to 17.7 points, averaging 3.5 points per game.
  4. Best Game (Week 9 against the Las Vegas Raiders): In his best game of the season, which occurred in Week 9 against the Las Vegas Raiders, Wan’Dale Robinson had a noteworthy performance. He accumulated 9.5 fantasy points, showcasing his skills with four catches for 35 yards and one touchdown.

Despite facing challenges in consistency, Wan’Dale Robinson’s ability to make impactful plays, particularly in his best game against the Las Vegas Raiders, highlights his potential. Darius Slayton will miss this game giving a lot of opportunity for Wan’Dale to shine in this game. He should smash his salary and be low owned by the field.

Defense: Cleveland Browns ($3,800)

The red-hot Broncos team will host the Cleveland Browns at home. But, the defense of Cleveland has proven to be one of the best defenses this season. These are the facts, Cleveland is No. 1 in passing defense and No. 6 in rushing defense this season. No defense in the NFL has been better than Brown’s defense this season.

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How I did Boom or Bust; “Monday Morning Quarterbacking”

Hello, all it’s a Monday and time to look back and say to myself, what I should’ve, could’ve, and would’ve done differently, as a DFS player.

I used to spend most of my time looking forward to the next slate, the next season, and so forth. I am finding it equally important to stop, take a breath, and start looking back at the process that led me to a winning or losing lineup.

Check back Monday

The Milly Winner

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On to week 13, we go!

Watch this Space!