Jon Gruden

Friday recap from Thursday slates will be out on Friday afternoon below:

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My Showdown Picks for Draftkings:

Here is my optimal DFS lineup for this games on tap. SEA vs. ARI on Thursday Night Football, I want to build around key offensive play-makers on both teams. Here’s my strategy breakdown:

🏈 SEA vs ARI Showdown Strategy Breakdown

1. Captain Spot (1.5x points)

• Kyler Murray (QB, ARI): Dual-threat upside with rushing + passing ceiling. If ARI pushes pace, Murray can outscore everyone via broken plays and deep shots to Harrison Jr. or McBride.
• Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR, SEA): Seahawks’ high-volume WR, slot mismatch. In a shootout script, JSN racks up 10+ catches and 100+ yards. Leverage off Murray CPT builds.
• Kenneth Walker III (RB, SEA): Workhorse back with explosive run potential. If Seattle controls tempo, Walker 20+ touches + multiple TD equity make him slate-breaking.
• Trey McBride (TE, ARI): Cardinals’ security blanket with red-zone usage. If Murray leans short/intermediate vs Seattle’s pressure, McBride could smash as a contrarian CPT.
• Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR, ARI): Rookie star with deep-ball ceiling. Leverage off Murray CPT; if Harrison hits multiple chunk plays or TDs, he can outscore his QB at lower ownership.

2. Core Plays

• Sam Darnold (QB, SEA): Not flashy, but correlated with JSN/Walker stacks. Efficient game-manager role with potential for 2–3 TDs.
• Tory Horton (WR, SEA): Cheaper WR option who can pop with a deep catch or red-zone look; leverage pivot off JSN chalk.
• Trey Benson (RB, ARI): Mixes in behind Conner, but explosive. A sneaky way to capture ARI rushing TD equity if he vultures touches.
• Seahawks D/ST: Strong pass rush vs ARI O-line. If Murray is forced into bad throws, SEA D stacks with Walker make sense.
• Cardinals D/ST: If Darnold struggles under pressure, ARI defense could rack up sacks/turnovers in a low-scoring game.

3. Value Plays

• Jason Myers (K, SEA): Consistent scoring, correlates with SEA control script.
• Chad Ryland (K, ARI): Salary saver; fits in balanced lineups.
• Michael Wilson (WR, ARI): Inconsistent but capable of a deep TD. Cheap FLEX pivot off Harrison Jr.
• Zach Charbonnet (RB, SEA): Complementary back, could steal a TD if SEA runs heavy.
• Greg Dortch (WR, ARI): Minimum-salary punt with target upside if ARI plays catch-up.

4. Flex Fillers / Scripts

✅ 3 Players to Start With (Core Foundation)

1. Kyler Murray (QB, ARI) → Highest raw ceiling, rushing + passing combo.
2. Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR, SEA) → Volume hog + slate-breaking PPR upside.
3. Kenneth Walker III (RB, SEA) → Ground-control workhorse with multi-TD equity.

Here are the 4 players I came up with on this build to start with!

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Obviously, I am going to mix and match different players throughout my lineups, with the players below.

Let’s Go! Let’s see how I do!

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SEA vs ARI Prediction, Picks & Betting Odds for Monday Night Football Week 2

Odds from Vegas Insiders. Subject to change.

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🏈 Large-Field GPP Player Pool

🎯 Captain Pool (5)

These players have ceiling outcomes that can break the slate:

These players have ceiling outcomes that can break the slate:

• Kyler Murray (QB, ARI) – $16,200 CPT
  🔥 Dual-threat → rushing + passing ceiling, chalky but unavoidable in ARI-heavy builds.
• Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR, SEA) – $16,500 CPT
  📈 Target hog → PPR monster with slate-breaking volume in shootout scripts.
• Kenneth Walker III (RB, SEA) – $15,600 CPT
  ⚡ Workhorse RB → explosive run + multi-TD equity if SEA controls pace.
• Trey McBride (TE, ARI) – $14,700 CPT
  🟡 Contrarian → Murray’s safety blanket; red-zone role gives leverage over chalk WR captains.
• Seahawks D/ST – $6,000 CPT
  🧨 Huge leverage → sack/turnover equity if Murray forced into mistakes.

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🏟 Flex Pool (10)

Mix and match these with the captains depending on game script:

1. Sam Darnold (QB, SEA) – $10,000 → Correlates with JSN/Walker, steady 2–3 TD ceiling.
2. Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR, ARI) – $7,800 → Rookie star, deep-ball + multi-TD upside.
3. Tory Horton (WR, SEA) – $5,800 → Cheaper WR pivot off JSN, can break slate with one long play.
4. Trey Benson (RB, ARI) – $8,800 → Explosive backup RB, leverage if he vultures a TD from Conner.
5. Michael Wilson (WR, ARI) – $3,400 → Punt WR who can catch a deep shot TD, low-owned leverage.
6. Zach Charbonnet (RB, SEA) – $5,400 → Change-of-pace RB, sneaky goal-line TD potential.
7. Jason Myers (K, SEA) – $5,000 → Correlates with Seattle control/field-goal game script.
8. Chad Ryland (K, ARI) – $4,800 → Salary saver, viable in low-scoring defensive builds.
9. Cardinals D/ST – $4,400 → Leverage play if Darnold struggles under pressure.
10. Greg Dortch (WR, ARI) – $3,200 → Salary punt, quick-slot WR who can surprise with 4–5 catches.

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💰 Cheap Options

Michael Wilson (WR, ARI) – $3,400 FLEX

• Deep-ball threat with low ownership.
• Opens salary for Murray + JSN + Walker builds.
• Correlates well in ARI shootout stacks.

Zach Charbonnet (RB, SEA) – $5,400 FLEX

• Secondary RB who can steal a touchdown.
• Unique leverage against Walker chalk.
• Best in SEA run-heavy game script.

Happy Lineup Building

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Recap Friday

How I did Boom or Bust; “Tuesday Morning Quarterbacking”

Hello all, it’s a Friday and time to look back and say to myself, what I should’ve, could’ve, and would’ve done differently, as a DFS player.

I used to spend most of my time looking forward to the next slate, the next season, and so forth. I find it equally important to stop, take a breath, and start looking back at the process that led me to a winning or losing lineup.

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Here are my thoughts on this lineup.

Captain – Trey McBride ($14,700, 12.7% CPT / 56.7% FLEX ownership) → 18.30 DK points

McBride was a fine floor play but not a winning captain. Seven receptions for 52 yards gave me consistency, but no touchdowns meant no ceiling. At nearly 13% CPT ownership, this was a popular choice, and without a score or a 100-yard bonus, he simply didn’t separate from the field. In Showdown, I needed my captain to hit 25–30+, and McBride fell short.

FLEX – Kyler Murray ($10,800, 9.5% CPT / 51.1% FLEX ownership) → 18.10 DK points

Murray’s stat line was decent but uninspiring: two touchdowns and some rushing yardage, but the two interceptions hurt badly. At over 50% ownership, his score wasn’t enough to provide leverage. For a mobile QB in a competitive game, this was a disappointing ceiling outcome. Without a rushing touchdown or 250+ yards, Murray’s production was capped.

FLEX – Sam Darnold ($10,000, 5.5% CPT / 42.0% FLEX ownership) → 16.08 DK points

Darnold was a serviceable bring-back but lacked firepower. He threw for 242 yards and one touchdown, but in a back-and-forth contest, I needed at least 20+ from him. The lack of multiple scores or deep completions kept his score middling — and when both QBs end up between 16–18 DK points, I had a lineup with no clear alpha performer.

FLEX – Trey Benson ($8,800, 10.6% CPT / 48.6% FLEX ownership) → 10.40 DK points

Benson’s role continues to be steady but underwhelming for DFS. While five catches helped his PPR value, he didn’t find the end zone and totaled just 54 yards. Nearly 50% of lineups used him, which made this score neutral at best. Without a touchdown or bonus, he was a dead-weight midrange play in a tight salary structure.

FLEX – Michael Wilson ($3,400, 1.4% CPT / 20.9% FLEX ownership) → 4.50 DK points

Wilson was a logical cheap piece for the Cardinals stack, but he simply didn’t show up. Three catches for 15 yards won’t cut it at any price. I needed him to connect on a deep shot or score a touchdown to pay off, and he failed to do either. When my value play gives under 5 DK points, I’m sunk in a GPP.

FLEX – Elijah Arroyo ($800, 0.5% CPT / 15.6% FLEX ownership) → 6.40 DK points

At near-minimum salary, Arroyo did his job — two catches for 44 yards at $800 was solid value. The issue wasn’t him individually, but the fact that the lineup around him didn’t capitalize on the savings. A cheap hit like this is only useful if it enables expensive ceiling players who smash; here, everyone else was average, so the value went wasted.

Here’s a breakdown of my lineup and their fantasy points:

• Terry McBride: 18.3 points (Capt)
• Kyler Murray: 18.1 points (Flex)
• Sam Darnold: 16.8 points (Flex)
• Trey Benson: 10.4 points (Flex)
• Michael Wilson: 4.5 points (Flex)
• Elijah Arroyo: 6.4 points (Flex)

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NFL Showdown $100K Huddle [Single Entry] (SEA @ ARI)

📉 Why the Lineup Failed

1. No True Ceiling Play – Every player scored between 10–18 points. That balance is fine for cash games but fatal in GPPs. I need one or two 25–30+ point scores to contend.
2. Captain Choice Too Safe – McBride provided stability, not explosion. Without a touchdown or big-yardage bonus, his CPT slot capped my total ceiling.
3. Both QBs Underperformed – Murray and Darnold each finished in the high teens, leaving no dominant QB performance to anchor the build.
4. Too Much Chalk, No Leverage – McBride, Murray, and Benson were all 45–55% owned. That combination created duplication and left no uniqueness.
5. Dead Value Slot – Wilson’s 4.5 was a total miss, and in a low-scoring slate, even small duds are costly.

🏆 Lesson for Future Showdowns

• Ceiling Captains Only. TEs without touchdowns rarely make winning captains unless they explode for 10+ catches or 100+ yards.
• Avoid Dual-QB Builds in Slow Games. When both teams rely on short passes and conservative play-calling, stacking both QBs caps the lineup’s upside.
• Find Leverage. If I play popular pieces like McBride and Murray, mix in contrarian skill players (e.g., WR2s, TEs, or kickers) to gain uniqueness.
• Value Must Enable Upside. Cheap players should unlock elite ceilings — not more “safe” mid-range plays.
• Correlation Over Comfort. Build for a bold game script — not one where everyone performs “okay.”

This lineup played it safe everywhere — steady floor, no volatility. But in Showdown tournaments, safety is the enemy. I win with chaos, leverage, and one or two players who explode while everyone else plays it safe.

Watch this Space!

On to Week 3