🏈 Hey, Let’s Go!, I’m thinking Las Vegas vs Chicago
Sunday recap from Sunday slates will be out on Monday afternoon below:
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Snuggle up in your favorite chair and grab some popcorn and your favorite drink, because this game will be fun to watch!
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Here’s My Criteria for Quarterback:
1) Can they put up 325 passing yards
2) Can they throw for 3 TDs (When you add criteria 1 and 2 together, that gets me to 28 DK points)
3) Can they rush for 20 yards if so (All 3 criteria together put me over 30 DK points
I landed on Geno Smith being the guy in Week 3 even though he will be high-owned by the field. I’ll eat the chalk, he can get there with his legs as well as passing. He has 2 great receivers to pass too.
Geno Smith QB, Raiders
Winning the Milly Maker often requires thinking outside the box, and I construct rosters with a target outcome of 214 points.
The success of this approach varies—sometimes it proves effective, while other times it doesn’t. But, I am playing for first place. If you’re curious about what I mean by this, check out this site for further details.. “Playing For First’ in NFL.”
Side Note: I feel very uncomfortable about the lineup below, but that is a good thing, because if I am right I have a great chance to hit for first place.
Afterall, I am going up against in the Milly Maker over 300,000 lineups. My lineup most be different to win.
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Here’s One of My Lineups in Week 4
Quarterback: Geno Smith ($5,400)
2025 Season Performance:
Geno Smith (QB, Raiders) has taken command of the Raiders’ offense, leaning on efficiency and red-zone execution to keep drives alive. His ability to distribute the ball to Jakobi Meyers and Brock Bowers makes him the centerpiece of Las Vegas’s attack.
Week 3 vs. Commanders: 19-of-29 for 289 yards and 3 touchdowns. Smith showcased poise in the pocket, carving up Washington’s secondary with multiple scoring strikes.
Why He Can Win You the Milly
With stacking partners who benefit directly from his touchdowns, Smith offers multi-TD upside. If Las Vegas plays in another shootout, his ceiling extends well past 25+ DK points.
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Running Backs: James Cook III ($7,100) & Omarion Hamptin ($5,900)
Running Back: James Cook III ($7,100)
2025 Season Performance:
James Cook III (RB, Bills) continues to emerge as Buffalo’s featured back, providing both rushing consistency and receiving utility. His growing red-zone role has made him a more complete DFS option.
Week 3 vs. Dolphins: 19 carries for 108 yards and 1 touchdown, plus 3 receptions for 10 yards. Cook set the tone on the ground and sealed the game with his efficiency.
Why He Can Win You the Milly
A 20+ touch workload with touchdown equity puts Cook in prime position for 25–30 point outings. If Buffalo leans run-heavy, he’s capable of slate-breaking production.
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Running Back: Omarion Hampton ($5,900)
2025 Season Performance
Ollie Hampton (RB, Chargers) has carved out work in Los Angeles’ backfield, bringing burst and red-zone usage. While still splitting touches, his explosiveness makes him fantasy-relevant.
Week 3 vs. [Denver]: Logged double-digit carries and contributed in the passing game, giving him steady involvement despite committee usage. Najee Hasrris had a season-ending torn Achilles so Hampton gets to start, Week 4.
Why He Can Win You the Milly
Hampton only needs one long touchdown or a goal-line score to exceed value, making him a perfect GPP upside play with no Najee Harris.
Wide Receivers: DJ Moore($5,600), Jakobi Meyers ($5,300), Adonai Mitchell ($8,000)
Wide Receiver: DJ Moore ($5,400)
2025 Season Performance
DJ Moore (WR, Bears) remains a trusted target for Caleb Williams, blending steady volume with after-the-catch ability. His usage near the goal line keeps him in the fantasy mix even on quiet days.
Week 3 vs. Lions: 4 receptions for 21 yards and 1 touchdown, plus 3 carries for 7 yards. Moore found the end zone to salvage an otherwise modest day.
Why He Can Win You the Milly
With red-zone looks locked in, Moore has the chance to spike big games when volume aligns. Pairing him with Caleb gives access to Chicago’s passing ceiling.
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Wide Receiver: Jakobi Meyers ($5,400)
2025 Season Performance
Jakobi Meyers (WR, Raiders) has become Geno Smith’s most dependable chain-mover, operating as a possession target with occasional end-zone upside. His role ensures stable usage week-to-week.
Week 3 vs. Commanders: Hauled in multiple receptions across key downs, complementing the vertical shots to Bowers and Adams.
Why He Can Win You the Milly
When Smith throws multiple scores, Meyers is often in the mix. A touchdown combined with his steady reception base makes him a strong stacking partner.
Wide Receiver: Adonai Mitchell ($3,100)
2025 Season Performance
Adonai Mitchell (WR, IND) is still finding his rhythm as a pro but flashes explosive downfield potential. His big-play profile makes him volatile yet enticing for tournaments.
Week 3 vs. [TEN]: Limited targets but displayed field-stretching speed on his catches. Alec Pierce is out with concussions. He will see increase playing time.
Why He Can Win You the Milly
Mitchell’s one-play upside is ideal for DFS leverage — if he connects on a long touchdown, he’ll pay off low ownership instantly.
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Tight End: Brock Bowers ($5,800)
2025 Season Performance
Brock Bowers (TE, Raiders) is already a focal point for Las Vegas, creating mismatches against linebackers and safeties. His athleticism gives Geno Smith a safety valve and a weapon in the seams.
Week 3 vs. Commanders: 4 receptions for 38 yards. Though he didn’t score, Bowers moved the chains in key moments.
Why He Can Win You the Milly
Bowers has two-TD upside whenever the Raiders reach the red zone. At tight end, that kind of ceiling makes him a tournament-winning option.
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FLEX: Wide Receiver: Puka Nacua ($7,900)
2025 Season Performance
Puka Nacua (WR, Rams) remains a target monster, building on his breakout 2024 season. His blend of volume and YAC keeps him in the WR1 conversation.
Week 3 vs. [WR PHI]: Reeled in a strong target share, turning it into meaningful yardage to lead the Rams’ passing attack.
Why He Can Win You the Milly
When Nacua adds touchdowns to his high catch volume, his ceiling pushes into 30+ point territory, making him a must-have in Rams stacks.
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Defense/Special Teams: Buffalo Bills ($3,700)
2025 Season Performance
Buffalo Bills DST thrives on pressuring quarterbacks and generating turnovers. Their defensive front continues to dictate games by collapsing pockets and forcing mistakes.
Week 3 vs. [MIA]: Collected multiple sacks and key stops, holding the opponent in check despite offensive pressure.
Why They Can Win You the Milly
With the ability to force turnovers and score defensively, the Bills’ DST always carries upside. A pick-six or multi-sack game vaults them into optimal lineups.
✅ Why This Lineup Can Win the Milly
This build stacks Geno Smith with his primary Raiders weapons — Jakobi Meyers and Brock Bowers — giving access to concentrated touchdown production in Las Vegas’s passing game. If Smith replicates his 3-TD outing from Week 3, the stack can easily combine for 50+ points, providing both leverage and ceiling.
James Cook III and Ollie Hampton bring balance in the backfield — Cook as Buffalo’s workhorse with explosive 100-yard, multi-score potential, and Hampton as a value runner who can punch in red-zone scores. Together they offer both safety and ceiling at running back.
At wide receiver, DJ Moore and Puka Nacua deliver volume and explosiveness — Moore with red-zone equity and steady targets from Caleb Williams, and Nacua as a target hog capable of piling up receptions and bonus yardage. Adonai Mitchell adds deep-threat upside, giving the lineup volatility that can pay off big in GPPs.
Finally, the Bills DST adds sack and turnover equity, with the ability to swing a slate through a defensive touchdown. Every piece in this roster has a clear path to 20+ points, with multiple players capable of breaking 30, creating the ceiling-driven construction needed to capture the Milly.
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MONDAY RECAP
How I did Boom or Bust; “Monday Morning Quarterbacking”
Hello, all it’s a Monday and time to look back and say to myself, what I should’ve, could’ve, and would’ve done differently, as a DFS player.
I used to spend most of my time looking forward to the next slate, the next season, and so forth. I find it equally important to stop, take a breath, and start looking back at the process that led me to a winning or losing lineup.
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Here are my thoughts on this lineup.
Quarterback – Geno Smith ($5,400, 11.1% owned) → 12.78 DK points
Smith struggled mightily against Chicago’s pass rush. Two touchdowns salvaged what could’ve been a disaster, but three interceptions and only 117 passing yards killed any ceiling. His rushing yardage (31) helped, yet the turnovers erased much of that value. For a QB in a tight Vegas total game, he simply didn’t produce enough to lead a Milly-winning lineup.
Running Back 1 – James Cook III ($7,100, 39.5% owned) → 25.50 DK points
Cook was one of the few bright spots. He dominated touches and efficiency, piling up over 130 total yards with a rushing touchdown. The problem: at nearly 40% ownership, his big game didn’t create leverage — it kept me even with the field instead of pulling ahead. In GPPs, chalk RBs need monster 35–40 point outings to justify that ownership, not just “solid” ones.
Running Back 2 – Ollie Hampton ($5,900, 39.0% owned) → 30.50 DK points
Another massive performance, but again — heavily owned. Hampton’s dual-threat usage was elite (165 total yards and a TD), yet pairing him with Cook meant I had two chalky RBs who scored well but didn’t separate me from the crowd. When both RBs are popular, I’m relying on perfect stacks elsewhere to climb leaderboards.
Wide Receiver 1 – DJ Moore ($5,600, 6.0% owned) → 7.80 DK points
Moore had a quiet afternoon despite Geno throwing two scores. Just four catches for 38 yards — no touchdowns, no explosive plays. As Geno’s primary stack piece, this completely killed the correlation value. If Geno was going to hit his ceiling, Moore had to come along, and he didn’t.
Wide Receiver 2 – Jakobi Meyers ($5,400, 23.0% owned) → 7.00 DK points
Meyers never got going either. Four short receptions for 30 yards in a low-tempo Raiders offense didn’t help. Between Moore and Meyers, my WR group lacked explosiveness, and neither correlated strongly with the QB or game environments that produced shootouts this week.
Wide Receiver 3 – Adonai Mitchell ($3,100, 5.2% owned) → 11.60 DK points
Mitchell was a sharp low-owned punt, flashing with 96 yards — but the lost fumble and lack of a TD left points on the table. He provided solid value at near-min salary, yet not enough to overcome weak QB/WR stacks. He was the right type of contrarian play, but his team context limited his ceiling.
Tight End – Brock Bowers ($5,800, 13.4% owned) → 9.60 DK points
Bowers delivered decent volume (5 catches for 46 yards) but didn’t find the end zone. At nearly 6K, that’s not enough. In a game where multiple tight ends (like Kincaid and LaPorta) erupted for 20+, his middling output was another missed ceiling spot.
FLEX – Puka Nacua ($7,900, 38.3% owned) → 39.00 DK points
Nacua was phenomenal — 13 catches, 170 yards, and a touchdown. He carried the lineup and single-handedly kept it competitive. But once again, his massive ownership (almost 40%) meant everyone had him. Without unique, low-owned ceiling pieces around him, his explosion didn’t translate into leaderboard movement.
Defense – Bills DST ($3,700, 8.5% owned) → 6.00 DK points
Mediocre showing. They played solid football (3 sacks, 1 INT) but lacked the high-impact play — no defensive touchdown or multi-turnover flurry. At 6 points, it was fine for cash games but useless for tournaments.
📉 Why the Lineup Failed
- QB Stack Collapse – Geno Smith was the wrong stack anchor. His poor performance and turnovers negated upside, and his stack partner (DJ Moore) flopped.
- Too Much Chalk – Cook (39%), Hampton (39%), Nacua (38%), Meyers (23%) — nearly half my lineup was massively owned. Even great performances couldn’t overcome duplication.
- Missed Ceiling Correlations – The Geno/Moore stack failed, while high-upside game environments (like SEA–NO or MIN–ATL) were the ones that broke the slate.
- Unbalanced Ownership Construction – My only low-owned plays (Mitchell, Bills DST) didn’t hit high enough to differentiate. No contrarian leverage plays paid off.
- No True Leverage Game Script – While my RBs and WRs scored decently, none of them came from under-owned, high-scoring offenses that separated from the field.
This lineup was solid, not spectacular — and in GPPs, “solid” equals dead money.
🏆 Lesson for Future Builds
Ceiling wins GPPs. I needed four players with 25+ DK points to contend for the Milly. Here, only Nacua and Hampton reached that range — everyone else lagged.
Stack smarter, not cheaper. Don’t just play value QBs — pick ones in projected shootouts with clear stacking partners.
Cap chalk at 2–3 players max. Anchor with one popular core piece, then pivot elsewhere to find unique upside.
Target correlated leverage. If I play a chalk RB like Cook, consider fading his QB/WR and instead bring it back with the opposing team’s passing game.
Here’s a Breakdown of My lineup and their Fantasy Points:
NFL $3.25M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st]
- Geno Smith: 12.78 points (QB)
- James Cook III: 25.5 points (RB)
- Ollie Hampton: 30.5 points (RB)
- DJ Moore: 7.8 points (WR)
- Jakobi Meyers : 7 points (WR)
- Adonai Mitchell: 11.6 points (WR)
- Brock Bowers : 9.6 points (TE)
- Puka Nacua : 39 points (Flex)
- Bills: 6 points (DST)
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The NFL $3.25M Fantasy Football Millionaire winning Lineup
On to Week 5 we go!
Watch this Space!