2025 – Draftkings – Monday Night Football Games – Week 5: KC vs. JAGs!

Jon Gruden

Monday recap from Monday slates will be out on Tuesday afternoon below:

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My Showdown Picks for Draftkings:

Here is my optimal DFS lineup for this games on tap. Kansas City vs. Jaguar on Monday Night Football, I want to build around key offensive play-makers on both teams. Here’s my strategy breakdown:

🧨 Captain Pool (5)

These are your ceiling captains capable of breaking the slate.

• Patrick Mahomes ($15,900 CPT)
  🔥 Elite ceiling in any matchup. JAX ranks bottom-10 in pass DVOA vs intermediate throws. Stack with Kelce or Worthy; double-stack viable in high total games (O/U 52).
• Travis Etienne Jr. ($14,700 CPT)
  ⚡ Bell-cow volume + receiving role. KC has allowed 5+ catches to RBs in 3 of last 4. If game stays close, Etienne can smash via 20+ touches and TD equity.
• Travis Kelce ($11,400 CPT)
  🏆 Red-zone magnet. Low-owned CPT leverage if field chases Mahomes/Worthy. Game-script independent — elite in comeback or lead scripts.
• Xavier Worthy ($13,200 CPT)
  🚀 Field-stretcher leverage off Kelce. If Mahomes connects deep (2+ long TDs), Worthy CPT crushes. Pair with Mahomes FLEX.
• Trevor Lawrence ($13,800 CPT)
  🧩 Contrarian QB CPT play if JAX upsets. Allows stacking with Thomas Jr. + Strange for passing correlation.
• Tyquan Thornton ($7,800 CPT) 🚀Thornton CPT is a high-variance leverage gem — if he connects on one deep TD + bonus (100-yard), this lineup leaps over 90% of Mahomes CPT builds.

🏟 Flex Pool (10)

Mix and match around captain builds.

• Hollywood Brown ($7,000 FLEX) – Volume WR1 role, great mid-tier exposure to KC’s offense.
• Brian Thomas Jr. ($10,200 FLEX) – Big-play rookie volatility; leverage off Ridley-type chalk.
• Isiah Pacheco ($6,200 FLEX) – TD-dependent but good floor in Chiefs-on-top script.
• Brenton Strange ($4,600 FLEX) – Salary saver, red-zone threat; can steal a TD vs zone-heavy KC.
• Harrison Butker ($5,400 FLEX) – Correlates with KC control script; perfect complement to Mahomes captain builds.
• Cam Little ($5,000 FLEX) – Double-kicker builds viable in low-total projection pivots.
• Chiefs DST ($4,400 FLEX) – Leverage vs Lawrence turnovers; good pairing with Pacheco for control script.
• Jaguars DST ($4,000 FLEX) – Only for Lawrence CPT builds; sack upside vs aggressive Mahomes.
• Dyami Brown ($2,000 FLEX) – Deep dart throw; correlated leverage if Lawrence spreads ball deep.
• Hunter Long ($1,600 FLEX) – Punt TE play; enables Mahomes + Kelce + Etienne stacks under salary cap.
• TyquanThornton ($5,200) brings 4.3-speed upside — a low-owned salary stabilizer that can turn 4 targets into 60 yards and a TD. Locks in 4–2 KC dominance.

📊 Leverage Notes

If Mahomes CPT chalk dominates, consider flipping to Etienne CPT for contrarian game script.
If Kelce chalk spikes, go Worthy CPT or Brown FLEX for big-play leverage.
Keep late-swap flexibility with cheap FLEX slots (kickers/TEs).
Avoid overstacking both QBs — prioritize correlated 4-2 builds (e.g., 4 Chiefs, 2 Jags or vice versa).
Monitor injury news on JAX WR depth (Thomas Jr. vs Washington vs Brown usage).

Here are the 3 players I came up with on this build to start with!

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Obviously, I am going to mix and match different players throughout my lineups, with the players below.

Let’s Go! Let’s see how I do!

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KC vs JAG Prediction, Picks & Betting Odds for Monday Night Football Week 5

Odds from Vegas Insiders. Subject to change.

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Happy Lineup Building

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Recap Tuesday

How I did Boom or Bust; “Tuesday Morning Quarterbacking”

Hello all, it’s a Tuesday and time to look back and say to myself, what I should’ve, could’ve, and would’ve done differently, as a DFS player.

I used to spend most of my time looking forward to the next slate, the next season, and so forth. I find it equally important to stop, take a breath, and start looking back at the process that led me to a winning or losing lineup.

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Here are my thoughts on this lineup.

Captain – Tyquan Thornton ($7,800, 2.6% CPT / 16.7% FLEX ownership) → 18.00 DK points

Thornton was an excellent contrarian captain pick in theory — low ownership and explosive speed in a potential shootout. But while his 90 yards on three catches looked good, the lack of a touchdown or 100-yard bonus kept his score from reaching true ceiling status. In Showdowns, my captain needs 25–30+, and 18 just isn’t enough to win. Still, this was the right type of captain — it just didn’t hit perfectly.

FLEX – Patrick Mahomes ($10,600, 27.9% CPT / 88.6% FLEX ownership) → 30.72 DK points

Mahomes was the slate’s core play, and he delivered a solid 30-point performance with both a passing and rushing touchdown. The issue? Nearly 90% of the field had him. That means his success didn’t separate me — it simply kept me from falling behind. Without unique stacking partners or leverage pivots, Mahomes’ points couldn’t carry this build to the top.

FLEX – Travis Etienne Jr. ($9,800, 15.7% CPT / 67.9% FLEX ownership) → 8.80 DK points

This was the lineup killer. Etienne had volume but no efficiency — under 60 total yards and no touchdowns. At almost 70% ownership, his underwhelming performance tanked thousands of lineups. Because of his price tag, that 8.8 DK points had a huge opportunity cost: I could’ve rostered a cheaper WR or RB who doubled his output at lower ownership.

FLEX – Xavier Worthy ($8,800, 11.6% CPT / 52.2% FLEX ownership) → 11.10 DK points

Worthy was fine, but “fine” doesn’t win Showdowns. Six catches for 51 total yards and no touchdowns was a floor game for a player in a shootout script. He stayed involved, but without a splash play or TD, his high ownership made this performance a neutral result. I needed him to break a long one to create leverage.

FLEX – Harrison Butker ($5,400, 1.8% CPT / 25.8% FLEX ownership) → 4.00 DK points

Butker was a salary-filler who didn’t help or hurt much — but that’s the problem. Only four extra points (from extra points, no field goals) was an empty slot in a game that featured plenty of touchdowns. Kickers can make sense in low-total games, but in a 59-point shootout, this spot should’ve been used on a player with true ceiling potential.

FLEX – Kareem Hunt ($4,200, 1.3% CPT / 16.5% FLEX ownership) → 18.70 DK points

Hunt was actually a bright spot. Two touchdowns on limited touches gave him great value, especially at only 16% ownership. However, because my other pieces were so popular, his breakout didn’t maximize impact. He helped, but I needed another low-owned player like him to stack the leverage.

📉 Why the Lineup Failed

1. Captain Didn’t Smash – Thornton was contrarian but stopped short of a true ceiling score. Without a touchdown or 100-yard bonus, he couldn’t outscore Mahomes captains.
2. Etienne Bust – His 8.8 DK points at high ownership destroyed the lineup’s potential. He was the chalk failure of the night.
3. Too Much Chalk – Mahomes, Worthy, and Etienne combined for nearly 80% ownership overlap. That killed differentiation and made duplication likely.
4. Wrong Game Script for Kicker – Butker only scored four points in a high-scoring game, wasting a valuable slot.
5. Leverage Not Fully Leveraged – Thornton and Hunt were strong contrarian pieces, but the rest of the lineup mirrored the field too closely to benefit.

🏆 Lesson for Future Showdowns

• Contrarian Captains Need Ceiling. Low ownership isn’t enough — they must have touchdown and bonus potential to truly pay off.
• Limit Chalk Pairings. If I play Mahomes, avoid stacking him with multiple 50%+ owned pieces like Etienne and Worthy. Use less popular skill players or defenses instead.
• Avoid Kickers in Shootouts. Prioritize WR3s, pass-catching RBs, or backup TEs who can catch a random touchdown.
• Correlate Differently. Pair contrarian captains with low-owned complementary teammates, not the same chalky stars everyone has.
• Balance Ownership Construction. Two chalk plays max — surround them with 2–3 players under 20% ownership who can realistically reach 15–25 DK points.

This lineup was close — I got the right game environment, and my contrarian captain was a sharp call. But the lack of a Thornton touchdown and Etienne’s flop left too much chalk dragging me down. In Showdown, good process isn’t enough — it takes ceiling and uniqueness to win.

Here’s a breakdown of my lineup and their fantasy points:

• Tyquan Thornton:18 points (Capt)
• Patrick Mahomes:30 points (Flex)
• Travis Etienne Jr.: 8.8 points (Flex)
• Xavier Worthy Worthy:11.10 points (Flex)
• Harrison Butkner:4.0 points (Flex)
• Kareem Hunt:18.70 points (Flex)

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NFL Showdown $100K (KC @ JAG) Winning Lineup

Watch this Space!

On to Week 6