🏈 Hey, Let’s Go!, I’m thinking TEN vs LV
Sunday recap from Sunday slates will be out on Monday afternoon below:
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Snuggle up in your favorite chair and grab some popcorn and your favorite drink, because this game will be fun to watch!
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Here’s My Criteria for Quarterback:
1) Can they put up 325 passing yards
2) Can they throw for 3 TDs (When you add criteria 1 and 2 together, that gets me to 28 DK points)
3) Can they rush for 20 yards if so (All 3 criteria together put me over 30 DK points
I landed on Geno Smith being the guy in Week 6. I think he will be Low-owned by the field. Plus, he can get there with his legs as well as passing. He has 2 great receivers to pass too.
Geno Smith QB, LV
Winning the Milly Maker often requires thinking outside the box, and I construct rosters with a target outcome of 214 points.
The success of this approach varies—sometimes it proves effective, while other times it doesn’t. But, I am playing for first place. If you’re curious about what I mean by this, check out this site for further details.. “Playing For First’ in NFL.”
Side Note: I feel very uncomfortable about the lineup below, but that is a good thing, because if I am right I have a great chance to hit for first place.
Afterall, I am going up against in the Milly Maker over 300,000 lineups. My lineup most be different to win.
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Here’s One of My Lineups in Week 6
Quarterback: Geno Smith – 14.9 ($5,400)
2025 Season Performance:
Geno Smith (QB, Raiders) has taken command of Las Vegas’s offense, leaning on efficient red-zone execution and rhythm passing. His chemistry with Brock Bowers and Jakobi Meyers gives him a stable fantasy floor with multi-touchdown upside.
Week 5 vs. Colts : 25-of-36 for 232 yards, 0 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions, adding 19 rushing yards. While turnovers cut into his fantasy total, Smith’s command of the offense and 69% completion rate showed promise against a disciplined Indianapolis secondary.
Why He Can Win You the Milly
Geno’s efficiency and connection with Tre Tucker keep him viable in GPPs under 5% ownership. If he pushes past 250+ passing yards and hits 3 TDs, he’s a leverage play over chalkier QBs.
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Running Backs:Ashton Jeanty – ($6,100) & Rico Dowdle – ($4,900)
Running Back: Ashton Jeanty – 15.8 ($6,100)
2025 Season Performance:
Ashton Jeanty (RB, Las Vegas) has quickly become a dual-threat force in Raider’s offense, balancing bruising inside runs with slick receiving work out of the backfield.
Week 5 vs. Colts : 14 carries for 57 yards and 5 receptions for 42 yards. Jeanty ran with patience and burst, consistently creating positive gains even against Indianapolis’s top-10 run defense. Though he didn’t find the end zone, his efficiency and usage was there.
Why He Can Win You the Milly
A workhorse with both rushing and receiving roles — Jeanty’s volume and touchdown equity make him the ideal GPP back. When he hits 20+ touches, he’s a slate-breaker.
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Running Back: Rico Dowdle – 11.3 ($4,900)
2025 Season Performance
Rico Dowdle (RB, Panthers) continues to take advantage of his increased workload, functioning as the team’s power back near the goal line.
Week 5 vs. Dolphins: 23 carries for 206 rushing yards and 1 touchdown, plus 3 receptions for 28 yards. Dowdle shredded Miami’s defensive front with repeated chunk gains, including a 64-yard house call that broke the game wide open. His 9.0 yards per carry efficiency was the best of his career and the highlight of Carolina’s offensive performance.
Why He Can Win You the Milly
Dowdle’s touchdown role in a high-scoring offense gives him cheap access to ceiling games. Low ownership + red-zone usage = perfect GPP leverage.
Wide Receivers: George Pickens ($6,600), Tetairoa McMillan ($5,700), Tre Tucker ($4,300)
Wide Receiver: George Pickens – 18.3 ($6,600)
2025 Season Performance
George Pickens (WR, Dallas) remains the clear alpha in Pittsburgh’s passing game. His size and contested-catch dominance make him matchup-proof.
Week 5 vs. Jets : 2 receptions for 57 yards and 1 touchdown on 5 targets. Pickens made his touches count — burning Sauce Gardner on a deep corner route for a 43-yard score early in the second quarter. Although volume was light, his downfield connection with Dak Prescott remained lethal..
Why He Can Win You the Milly
When Pickens connects deep, he flips tournaments. His 25+ point upside paired with steady target volume makes him a core piece.
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Wide Receiver: Tetairoa McMillan – 12.4 ($5,700)
2025 Season Performance
Tetairoa McMillan (WR, Panthers) has emerged as Kyler Murray’s vertical weapon. His combination of length and speed stretches defenses.
Week 5 vs. Dolphins (Sunday 2025): 6 receptions for 73 yards on 9 targets. McMillan repeatedly found space against Miami’s secondary, working the sidelines and converting multiple third downs. His ability to win contested catches kept drives alive and opened up lanes for Rico Dowdle’s explosive ground performance.
Why He Can Win You the Milly
Low-owned deep threat with big-play potential. If McMillan hits a 100-yard bonus or scores, he smashes his price.
Wide Receiver: Tre Tucker – 15.5 ($4,300)
2025 Season Performance
Tre Tucker (WR, Raiders) brings explosive separation and yards-after-catch ability to Geno Smith’s arsenal.
Week 5 vs. Colts : 4 receptions for 62 yards on 6 targets. Tucker consistently found holes in Indianapolis’s zone coverage, turning short routes into chunk plays with his run-after-catch ability. While he didn’t score, his chemistry with Geno Smith remained evident throughout the game.
Why He Can Win You the Milly
Tucker’s chemistry with Geno and vertical role give him slate-breaking upside at low cost. He’s the perfect stacking partner for tournament leverage.
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Tight End: AJ Barner – 10.4 ($3,300)
2025 Season Performance
AJ Barner (TE, Seahawks) has quietly carved a role as a red-zone option and chain-mover in Seattle’s offense.
Week 5 vs. Buccaneers : 7 receptions for 53 yards and 2 touchdowns on 9 targets. Barner dominated in the short-to-intermediate game, repeatedly finding soft spots in Tampa’s zone coverage and converting both red-zone targets into scores. It was a statement performance that showcased his touchdown equity and consistency.
Why He Can Win You the Milly
Sub-5% ownership with red-zone upside. Cheap tight ends who score open the door for balanced GPP builds.
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FLEX: RUNNING BACK – Josh Jacobs – 18.1 ($6,800)
2025 Season Performance
Josh Jacobs (RB, Packers) remains the centerpiece of Green Bay’s offense, mixing volume with tackle-breaking power.
Week 5 vs. Cowboys : 21 carries for 88 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns, plus 2 receptions for 14 yards. Jacobs dominated short-yardage situations, powering in both scores from inside the 10-yard line. His physical running style wore down Dallas’s front seven, helping Green Bay control time of possession and seal the win.
Why He Can Win You the Milly
Jacobs’ workhorse role with 25-touch potential and goal-line control gives him elite floor and ceiling — perfect anchor for a mid-range GPP roster.
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Defense/Special Teams: Pittsburgh Steelers – 8.3 ($3,400)
2025 Season Performance
Steelers Defense (DST) has terrorized opposing quarterbacks with relentless pressure and opportunistic turnovers.
Week 5 vs. Vikings : The Steelers recorded 2 interceptions, 3 sacks, and a forced fumble in a gritty defensive battle. Their secondary capitalized on errant throws from Minnesota’s quarterback, and the pass rush disrupted timing throughout the game.
Why They Can Win You the Milly
Defenses that score touchdowns swing tournaments. The Steelers’ pass rush gives them legitimate 20-point upside when chaos hits.
✅ Why This Lineup Can Win the Play-Action
This lineup thrives on correlated leverage and balanced ceiling potential across all positions:
- Geno Smith + Tre Tucker stack provides under-owned tournament correlation.
- Jeanty + Jacobs deliver 40-touch combined volume with goal-line equity.
- Pickens adds alpha WR explosion potential.
- Barner offers red-zone touchdown leverage at sub-3% ownership.
- Steelers DST creates sack/turnover upside that complements Pickens’ game script.
Every player has a realistic 20+ DK-point path, and at least three carry 30+ ceiling potential, making this lineup perfectly balanced for the $1 Million GPP — efficient, contrarian, and correlated.
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MONDAY RECAP
How I did Boom or Bust; “Monday Morning Quarterbacking”
Hello, all it’s a Monday and time to look back and say to myself, what I should’ve, could’ve, and would’ve done differently, as a DFS player.
I used to spend most of my time looking forward to the next slate, the next season, and so forth. I find it equally important to stop, take a breath, and start looking back at the process that led me to a winning or losing lineup.
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Here are my thoughts on this lineup.
Quarterback – Geno Smith ($5,200, 1.4% owned) → 9.66 DK points
Smith was the biggest issue. Despite being a sharp low-owned pivot, he simply didn’t deliver. Only 174 passing yards, one touchdown, and an interception killed his ceiling. He failed to connect deep, and negative rushing yards sealed the disappointment. With your RB (Jeanty) and WR (Tucker) from the same game both producing decently, Smith’s inability to capitalize on their production capped the lineup’s potential.
Running Back 1 – Ashton Jeanty ($6,900, 22.0% owned) → 16.60 DK points
Jeanty was fine but not slate-breaking. He found the end zone and totaled 86 yards, but with so many running backs hitting 30+, this mid-teens performance just wasn’t enough. He was solid for cash games, but in tournaments, I needed multiple explosive plays or receptions to separate — and that didn’t happen here.
Running Back 2 – Rico Dowdle ($5,800, 37.5% owned) → 36.90 DK points
Dowdle was fantastic — a true breakout performance with over 230 total yards and a touchdown. He provided the ceiling outcome I needed. The only problem? At nearly 38% ownership, everyone had him. His score didn’t make the lineup unique enough to matter.
Wide Receiver 1 – Tre Tucker ($4,800, 6.0% owned) → 12.00 DK points
Tucker was a decent value play who did his job with 70 yards, but he didn’t find the end zone. At only 6% ownership, this could’ve been a strong leverage piece if he had scored. Instead, his mid-tier output became just another “good but not great” result that failed to push my total up the standings.
Wide Receiver 2 – George Pickens ($6,800, 9.5% owned) → 34.80 DK points
Pickens went off. Nine receptions, 168 yards, and a touchdown gave me the ceiling I needed from my WR spot. He was low-owned, correlated well with the Steelers defense, and did everything right. Unfortunately, the other offensive pieces didn’t match his ceiling, leaving too much weight on one big performance.
Wide Receiver 3 – Tetairoa McMillan ($6,000, 20.6% owned) → 17.90 DK points
McMillan scored twice but only had 29 total yards. While touchdowns saved him, his limited yardage meant the ceiling wasn’t as high as it could’ve been. At over 20% ownership, his production was more “stabilizer” than difference-maker.
Tight End – AJ Barner ($3,600, 3.1% owned) → 10.10 DK points
Barner was a sharp value play — 71 yards on three catches was efficient and contrarian. He provided solid ROI at low ownership, but again, without a touchdown, it was another case of “good value, no ceiling.” In GPPs, that’s not enough.
FLEX – Josh Jacobs ($7,300, 29.8% owned) → 32.00 DK points
Jacobs was excellent — two touchdowns and over 150 total yards gave him a monster day. However, with nearly 30% ownership, this was another chalk hit that helped everyone else too. I nailed the play, but it didn’t create separation from the field.
Defense – Steelers DST ($3,600, 8.8% owned) → 10.00 DK points
The Steelers defense was solid but not slate-breaking. Six sacks and a fumble recovery were strong, but without a defensive touchdown or turnover explosion, 10 points didn’t move the needle. I needed 15–20 from my defense to fully capitalize on my offensive success.
📉 Why the Lineup Failed
- Quarterback Dud – Geno Smith’s 9.66 points crushed the lineup. You can’t win a GPP when your QB scores under 10.
- No Stack Correlation – Smith’s receivers (Tucker) performed decently, but not enough to maximize his output. Without stacking ceiling production, his 9 points killed your total.
- Chalk Overload – Dowdle, McMillan, Jacobs, and Jeanty were all heavily owned. Even though several produced, ownership duplication limited upside.
- No Unique Leverage – Outside of Barner (3%) and Tucker (6%), there were no contrarian pieces that popped. You needed one more low-owned breakout (like a secondary WR or TE) to separate.
- Flat Construction – The lineup had strong balance but lacked volatility. A safe, well-rounded lineup can score high (179.96) but rarely wins a GPP without differentiation or a ceiling QB.
🏆 Lesson for Future Builds
- Ceiling QBs Win Tournaments. Even if the rest of my lineup smashes, a sub-10 QB score kills my chances. Prioritize passers with 30+ potential in high-total games.
- Correlate for Upside. Stack my QB with at least two pass-catchers or a bring-back from the opposing team for compound scoring opportunities.
- Limit Chalk Exposure. Two to three popular players are fine, but four or more kills uniqueness. Use ownership leverage elsewhere.
- Find One Contrarian Smash. Look for sub-10% plays with 25-point upside — those are the difference-makers.
- Balance Ceiling, Not Safety. Mid-tier values are great, but a lineup needs volatility to win. A 180-point floor is nice, but in GPPs, you’re chasing 220+.
This lineup had excellent player choices and solid results across the board — but Geno Smith’s floor game and too much overlapping chalk kept it from contending. It was close to great, but missing the explosive QB performance that turns a high score into a top-10 finish.
Here’s a Breakdown of My lineup Fantasy Points:
NFL $2.75M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st]
- Geno Smith: 9.66 points (QB)
- Ashton Jeanty: 16.60 points (RB)
- Rico Dowdle : 36.90 points (RB)
- Tetairoa McMillan : 17.90 points (WR)
- George Pickens : 34.80 points (WR)
- Tre Tucker: 12.00 points (WR)
- AJ Barner: 10.10 points (TE)
- Josh Jacobs: 32.00 points (Flex)
- Steelers: 10.00 points (DST)
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NFL $2.75M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st] winning Lineup
On to Week 7 we go!
Watch this Space!