2025 – Draftkings – Monday Night Football Games – Week 1: CHI vs. MIN!

Monday recap from Monday slates will be out on Tuesday afternoon below:

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My Showdown Picks for Draftkings:

Here is my optimal DFS lineup for this games on tap. Bears vs. Vikings on Monday Night Football, I want to build around key offensive play-makers on both teams. Here’s my strategy breakdown:

1. Captain Spot (1.5x points)

Justin Jefferson (WR, Vikings): Alpha usage with slate-breaking YAC and end-zone equity. If MIN is aggressive early or CHI plays single-high, JJ can dust this slate. Pair with J.J. McCarthy (or Will Reichard for salary) and run back DJ Moore to capture both sides of a shootout.

Caleb Williams (QB, Bears): Dual-threat floor + ceiling. If the Bears lean pace/RPO and let Caleb rip, he can capture rushing TDs and spread stacks (Moore/Odunze/Kmet). Captain Caleb builds are flexible and play well with Addison (mispriced) and a kicker/DST to fit stars.

2. Core Plays

DJ Moore (WR, Bears): Primary read and red-zone alpha; best bring-back to JJ or pair with Caleb CPT.
T.J. Hockenson (TE, Vikings): Volume sponge on sticks/reds; great in McCarthy stacks and as leverage off JJ.
Rome Odunze (WR, Bears): Explosive rookie profile; ideal as the second piece in Caleb doubles.
J.J. McCarthy (QB, Vikings): Rookie volatility but full correlation to JJ/Hock; benefits from short fields and YAC.
D’Andre Swift (RB, Bears) / Aaron Jones Sr. (RB, Vikings): If game tilts run-heavy or a team plays from ahead, these backs can rack PPR + TDs. Jones is your goal-line Viking; Swift adds receiving leverage off Moore.

3. Value Plays

Jalen Nailor (WR, Vikings): Cheap field-stretcher; correlates with McCarthy CPT and pivots off Addison chalk.
Josh Oliver (TE, Vikings): Stone-cheap red-zone role; sneaky TD equity in power looks.
Cole Kmet (TE, Bears) / Roschon Johnson (RB, Bears): Kmet is a solid mid-tier bring-back; Roschon can vulture at the goal line and catch check-downs.
Kickers (Reichard, Santos) & DSTs (Vikings, Bears): Salary stabilizers. Use when your stack needs 8–12 points without killing ceiling; prioritize the side you’re stacking.

4. Flex Fillers

• CHI pass script: Caleb CPT + Moore + Odunze/Kmet; bring back JJ/Hock.
• MIN pass script: JJ CPT + McCarthy + Hock/Addison; bring back Moore.
• Ground/control script: Jones or Swift CPT + same-team DST/kicker; mini-bring-back opposing WR.
• Leverage notes: If Addison chalk scares you, pivot to Nailor/Oliver/Reichard; or flip to Hockenson CPT for premium leverage off JJ. Keep late-swap outs open around your cheapest slot (kicker/TE/value WR).

Here are the 3 players I came up with on this build to start with!

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Obviously, I am going to mix and match different players throughout my lineups, with the players below.

Let’s Go! Let’s see how I do!

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Bears vs Vikings Prediction, Picks & Betting Odds for Monday Night Football Week 2

Odds from Vegas Insiders. Subject to change.

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DraftKings Showdown: Captain

Justin Jefferson – $16,200
DJ Moore – $14,400
Caleb Williams – $13,800
J.J. McCarthy – $13,500
T.J. Hockenson – $9,900

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DraftKings Showdown: Flex

Justin Jefferson – $10,800
DJ Moore – $9,600
Caleb Williams – $9,200
J.J. McCarthy – $9,000
D’Andre Swift – $8,800
Rome Odunze – $8,000
Aaron Jones Sr. – $7,400
T.J. Hockenson – $6,600

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DraftKings Showdown: Cheap Options

Josh Oliver – $1,600
Roschon Johnson – $3,000

Happy Lineup Building

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Recap Tuesday

How I did Boom or Bust; “Tuesday Morning Quarterbacking”

Hello all, it’s a Tuesday and time to look back and say to myself, what I should’ve, could’ve, and would’ve done differently, as a DFS player.

I used to spend most of my time looking forward to the next slate, the next season, and so forth. I find it equally important to stop, take a breath, and start looking back at the process that led me to a winning or losing lineup.

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Here are my thoughts on this lineup.

Captain – Caleb Williams ($13,800, 14.0% CPT / 66.6% FLEX ownership) → 36.30 DK points

Caleb was phenomenal — easily the best play in the lineup. A passing and rushing touchdown, 268 total yards, and solid rushing equity made him the ideal captain choice. The issue wasn’t him; it was the pieces surrounding him. Despite Caleb hitting his ceiling, the rest of the lineup failed to capitalize on his production, leaving the build stranded in the mid-tier of the leaderboard.

FLEX – Justin Jefferson ($10,800, 13.9% CPT / 70.1% FLEX ownership) → 14.80 DK points

Jefferson found the end zone but still disappointed relative to his salary. Only four catches for 44 yards in a game where Minnesota spread the ball around capped his upside. At 70% ownership, this score was a death sentence — nearly everyone had him, and he didn’t deliver a ceiling game. In Showdown, I needed my studs to smash, not just “show up.”

FLEX – DJ Moore ($9,600, 9.8% CPT / 52.9% FLEX ownership) → 9.60 DK points

Moore’s performance killed the stack. Caleb had a strong outing, but Moore never got going — just three catches, one fumble, and minimal after-catch yardage. Without a touchdown or 100-yard bonus, his output was a massive disappointment at this price. When my QB captain posts 36 and his WR1 scores single digits, my stack collapses.

FLEX – Rome Odunze ($8,000, 7.3% CPT / 36.9% FLEX ownership) → 15.70 DK points

Odunze was solid, but not slate-breaking. He caught a touchdown and had six receptions, but his yardage was modest (37). This was the kind of “good but not enough” result that keeps me cashing but never climbing. If I played him without fading Jefferson or Moore, his production didn’t help me gain leverage — it just blended in.

FLEX – Adam Thielen ($4,400, 5.1% CPT / 32.6% FLEX ownership) → 2.00 DK points

This was the lineup’s biggest dud. Thielen had just one two-point conversion and no meaningful yardage. His low price opened salary flexibility, but he gave nothing in return. With cheaper punts or backup RBs hitting double digits on this slate, Thielen’s 2.0 was dead weight.

FLEX – Bears DST ($3,400, 1.4% CPT / 10.7% FLEX ownership) → 11.00 DK points

The Bears defense actually over-performed relative to salary. Three sacks, one interception, and a defensive touchdown gave them a nice return. The problem: pairing a defense against my captain QB (Caleb) was negative correlation. While both scored decently, that combo almost never wins GPPs — the Bears’ success came at the expense of Caleb’s passing volume and vice versa.

Here’s a breakdown of my lineup and their fantasy points:

• Caleb William: 36.3 points (Capt)
• DJ Moore: 9.6 points (Flex)
• Rome Odunze: 15.7 points (Flex)
• Adam Thielen: 2 points (Flex)
• Bears: 11 points (Flex)
• Justin Jefferson: 14.8 points (Flex)

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NFL Showdown $100K Huddle [Single Entry] (CHI @ MIN)

📉 Why the Lineup Failed

1. Negative Correlation – Playing Bears DST with Captain Caleb Williams was a strategic conflict. I can’t have my QB ceiling and my opposing defense both hit their true top ranges in the same script.
2. No True Ceiling from WRs – Moore and Jefferson both failed to crack 15 points, leaving Caleb’s production unsupported.
3. Chalk Overlap – Caleb + Jefferson + Moore was one of the most common combinations on the slate. Without a contrarian piece exploding, the lineup was too duplicated.
4. Dead Spot at Value – Thielen’s 2-point outing was a killer. A mid-range WR or kicker pivot here could’ve boosted total points by 10–15.
5. No Leverage or Differentiation – Every play except Thielen and the Bears DST was among the top-owned options. There was no unique angle to separate from the field.

🏆 Lesson for Future Showdowns

• Avoid Opposing Correlation. Never pair my QB Captain with the opposing defense — it limits both ceilings.
• Prioritize Ceiling Receivers. If my captain a QB, make sure at least one pass-catcher can match him with 25+ points.
• Leverage with Ownership. Mix in a low-owned skill player (e.g., RB2, TE, WR3) or kicker in games with heavy QB-WR chalk stacks.
• Cheap Doesn’t Mean Good. Salary relief is only valuable if the player can realistically reach double digits.
• Differentiate from the Field. Showdown slates are often won by builds that take one obvious core piece (like Caleb) and mix in one or two unexpected correlations that can still logically fit the game script.

This lineup had a strong foundation with Captain Caleb but drowned in duplicated chalk and negative correlation. In Showdowns, being “right” about the best player isn’t enough — you need the right combination to stand out.

Watch this Space!

On to Week 2