Jon Gruden

Friday recap from Thursday slates will be out on Friday afternoon below:

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My Showdown Picks for Draftkings:

Here is my optimal DFS lineup for this games on tap. GB vs. WAS on Thursday Night Football, I want to build around key offensive play-makers on both teams. Here’s my strategy breakdown:

🏈 GB vs WAS Showdown Strategy Breakdown

1. Captain Spot (1.5x points)

• Jayden Daniels (QB, WAS): Dual-threat with rushing + passing ceiling. If WAS leans into tempo and RPOs, Daniels can outscore everyone through ground + air. Pair with Deebo Samuel or McLaurin, then bring back Love/Reed.
• Jordan Love (QB, GB): Packers’ passing engine, especially if WAS stacks the box vs. Jacobs. Love + Reed/Doubs builds can smash if he throws 3 TDs at home.
• Deebo Samuel Sr. (WR, WAS): Hybrid WR/RB with explosive YAC. Perfect leverage off Daniels CPT chalk — if Deebo racks up rushing/receiving TDs, he can outscore his QB.
• Josh Jacobs (RB, GB): Workhorse back, potential for 20+ touches + goal-line carries. In a grind-it-out Packers script, Jacobs CPT + GB D works well.
• Jacory Croskey-Merritt (RB, WAS): Contrarian CPT who opens salary. If Daniels spreads it and Croskey steals red-zone TDs, this lineup is instantly unique.

2. Core Plays

• Terry McLaurin (WR, WAS): Washington’s deep-ball + red-zone WR. Best bring-back for Love stacks.
• Jayden Reed (WR, GB): Alpha WR role with big-play upside; chalky but high ceiling in GB pass stacks.
• Romeo Doubs (WR, GB): Cheap leverage over Reed — can steal TDs and break slates at lower ownership.
• Packers D/ST: Young QB’s make mistakes → turnover equity. Strong in low-scoring or GB blowout builds.
• Commanders D/ST: Leverage if Love turns the ball over or GB’s line collapses.

3. Value Plays

• Luke Musgrave (TE, GB): Cheap red-zone threat, easy salary saver.
• Tucker Kraft (TE, GB): Slightly more expensive than Musgrave but sneaky TD upside.
• Noah Brown (WR, WAS): Cheap punt WR who can catch a deep shot or TD.
• Brandon McManus (K, GB): Correlates with Packers control script; steady 8–12 points.
• Matt Gay (K, WAS): Cheap filler, correlates with slower WAS drives stalling in GB territory.

4. Flex Fillers / Scripts

• GB pass script: Love CPT + Reed/Doubs + Musgrave → bring back McLaurin.
• WAS rush/pass script: Daniels CPT + Deebo/McLaurin → bring back Jacobs.
• Grind script: Jacobs CPT + Packers D + McManus → bring back Deebo or WAS WR.
• Contrarian: Croskey-Merritt CPT + both defenses → cheap WR one-off.

✅ 3 Players to Start With (Core Foundation)

1. Jayden Daniels (QB, WAS) → Highest ceiling, chalk but unavoidable.
2. Jayden Reed (WR, GB) → Explosive WR1 role, strong correlation with Love.
3. Deebo Samuel Sr. (WR, WAS) → Hybrid ceiling play, leverage off Daniels CPT.

👉 With those 3 as your starting point, you can decide whether to make it chalky (Daniels CPT), balanced (Deebo CPT), or contrarian (Jacory CPT + defenses).

Here are the 3 players I came up with on this build to start with!

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Obviously, I am going to mix and match different players throughout my lineups, with the players below.

Let’s Go! Let’s see how I do!

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GB vs WAS Prediction, Picks & Betting Odds for Monday Night Football Week 2

Odds from Vegas Insiders. Subject to change.

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🏈 Large-Field GPP Player Pool

🎯 Captain Pool (5)

These players have ceiling outcomes that can break the slate:

1. Jayden Daniels (QB, WAS) – $16,500 CPT
   🔥 Dual-threat → rushing + passing ceiling, chalky but necessary in pool.
2. Jordan Love (QB, GB) – $15,000 CPT
   📈 Packers home QB, ownership lower than Daniels → leverage in shootout script.
3. Deebo Samuel Sr. (WR, WAS) – $12,900 CPT
   ⚡ Hybrid role, rushing TD equity, ceiling captain play.
4. Jacory Croskey-Merritt (RB, WAS) – $10,500 CPT
   🟡 Contrarian RB captain, leverage if Daniels doesn’t hog TDs.
5. Packers D/ST – $7,200 CPT
   🧨 Huge leverage → pick-six, sacks, mistakes from Daniels.

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🏟 Flex Pool (10)

Mix and match these with the captains depending on game script:

1. Josh Jacobs (RB, GB) – $10,600 → Volume play, TD equity.
2. Terry McLaurin (WR, WAS) – $9,000 → Lower-owned WR leverage off Deebo.
3. Jayden Reed (WR, GB) – $8,200 → Packers WR1 role, ceiling in shootouts.
4. Romeo Doubs (WR, GB) – $4,000 → Cheap WR pivot, leverage over Reed.
5. Luke Musgrave (TE, GB) – $2,400 → Punt TE, red-zone upside.
6. Tucker Kraft (TE, GB) – $5,400 → Mid-tier TE pivot, less owned than Musgrave.
7. Brandon McManus (K, GB) – $5,000 → Correlated with Packers grind-out script.
8. Matt Gay (K, WAS) – $4,600 → Low ceiling, but viable in defensive slog.
9. Commanders D/ST – $4,400 → Leverage if Love turns it over.
10. Noah Brown (WR, WAS) – $3,200 → Cheap WR punt, ownership low, saves salary.

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💰 Cheap Options

1. Luke Musgrave (TE, GB) – $2,400 FLEX
   • Red-zone target, athletic TE with big-play upside.
   • Lets you jam in Daniels + Love + Deebo while staying under $50K.
   • Ownership will be moderate but still less than Reed/Jacobs.
2. Noah Brown (WR, WAS) – $3,200 FLEX
   • Veteran WR who can snag a deep shot or random TD.
   • Salary saver on the Washington side, leverage over McLaurin/Deebo.
   • Correlates well if Daniels throws 35+ times.

Happy Lineup Building

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Recap Friday

How I did Boom or Bust; “Tuesday Morning Quarterbacking”

Hello all, it’s a Friday and time to look back and say to myself, what I should’ve, could’ve, and would’ve done differently, as a DFS player.

I used to spend most of my time looking forward to the next slate, the next season, and so forth. I find it equally important to stop, take a breath, and start looking back at the process that led me to a winning or losing lineup.

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Here are my thoughts on this lineup.

Captain – Deebo Samuel Sr. ($12,900, 10.8% CPT / 48.9% FLEX ownership) → 26.10 DK points

Deebo delivered exactly what I wanted from a captain in a balanced, low-scoring game: a touchdown, steady volume, and yards after the catch. His hybrid usage kept him involved throughout, but even with a strong performance, it wasn’t enough to break the slate. In Showdown tournaments, a 26-point captain score often needs multiple low-owned correlation hits behind it — which this lineup lacked.

FLEX – Jayden Daniels ($11,000, 24.1% CPT / 82.8% FLEX ownership) → 19.70 DK points

Daniels was the obvious chalk, and while he played efficiently, he never reached his dual-threat ceiling. Only 17 rushing yards and 200 passing yards limited his upside, and with over 80% of the field rostering him, his 19.7 points barely moved the needle. He was “good” but too popular to help me separate from the crowd.

FLEX – Jordan Love ($10,000, 11.2% CPT / 62.9% FLEX ownership) → 20.88 DK points

Love was solid but unspectacular. Two touchdowns and almost 300 passing yards were nice, but he shared ownership overlap with most of the top builds. Without a third touchdown or a 300-yard bonus, he didn’t have the raw ceiling necessary to push this lineup into the top tier. He became another “neutral” piece in a lineup full of them.

FLEX – Terry McLaurin ($9,000, 4.9% CPT / 28.0% FLEX ownership) → 9.80 DK points

McLaurin was the weakest link in the stack. Despite decent volume, he couldn’t break free for a big play or touchdown. His 48 yards on five catches represented fine usage but low efficiency. On a slate where I needed explosive plays to win, McLaurin’s quiet outing erased the potential of my Washington stack.

FLEX – Romeo Doubs ($4,000, 5.8% CPT / 45.9% FLEX ownership) → 11.80 DK points

Doubs found the end zone, but his 28 receiving yards and limited role prevented a true value eruption. At nearly 46% ownership, his touchdown became more of a wash than a leverage hit — too many players shared him. When cheap chalk hits but doesn’t smash, I’m still stuck among duplicated lineups.

FLEX – Luke Musgrave ($2,400, 0.1% CPT / 2.6% FLEX ownership) → 5.20 DK points

This was my one contrarian dart throw — and while it was the right idea to get unique, it didn’t land. Two catches for 32 yards gave him a quiet 5 points. Had he found the end zone, this lineup could’ve jumped 50+ spots, but without that touchdown, he was invisible. The contrarian piece didn’t deliver.

Here’s a breakdown of my lineup and their fantasy points:

• Deebo Samuel: 26.1 points (Capt)
• Jayden Daniels: 19.7 points (Flex)
• Jordan Love: 20.8points (Flex)
• Terry McLaurin: 9.8 points (Flex)
• Romeo Doubs: 11.8 points (Flex)
• Like Musgrave: 5.2 points (Flex)

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NFL Showdown $100K Huddle [Single Entry] (WAS @ GB)

📉 Why the Lineup Failed

1. No True Ceiling Game – Every player was solid but none exploded. I had six “good” scores and zero “great” ones — that doesn’t win Showdowns.
2. Chalk Overload – Daniels (82%), Love (63%), Doubs (46%), and Deebo (49%) meant almost everyone had some version of this build. There was zero uniqueness.
3. McLaurin Dud – A sub-10 performance from a $9K player is a killer. Without a touchdown, he wasted salary that could’ve gone to a kicker or cheaper RB with upside.
4. Missed Leverage – Love and Doubs correlated fine, but I lacked the complementary piece like Jayden Reed or Josh Jacobs who could’ve produced a ceiling game alongside them.
5. Dead Value Spot – Musgrave didn’t hurt badly, but he didn’t help either. On a slate with viable 2–3K punts scoring 10+, I left points on the table.

🏆 Lesson for Future Showdowns

• Don’t Just Be “Right” — Be Unique. Stacking both QBs is fine for median projections but terrible for tournament leverage. Pick one, and build for that game script.
• Seek Explosive Pairings. Deebo’s captain performance was strong, but pairing him with a low-output WR group (McLaurin, Doubs) limited upside.
• Leverage the Chalk. If I play popular QBs, use low-owned pass-catchers or RBs to differentiate my build.
• Value with Upside. Cheap players must be capable of 2x–3x returns; otherwise, I’m drawing dead.
• Ceiling Over Consistency. Six medium scores will never beat three ceiling games in Showdown. Aim for volatility, not balance.

This lineup had good structure and correlation — Deebo captain was sharp — but it died by duplication and lack of true slate-breaking pieces. To win Showdowns, I need chaos, leverage, and one or two players who massively outperform ownership — not six steady performances.

Watch this Space!

On to Week 3