🏈 Hey, Let’s Go!, I’m thinking Jets vs BUF
Sunday recap from Sunday slates will be out on Monday afternoon below:
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Grab some popcorn and your favorite drink, because this game should be fun to watch!
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Here’s My Criteria for Quarterback:
1) Can they put up 325 passing yards
2) Can they throw for 3 TDs (When you add criteria 1 and 2 together, that gets me to 28 DK points)
3) Can they rush for 20 yards if so (All 3 criteria together put me over 30 DK points
I landed on Justin Fields being the guy in Week 2 and will be low-owned by the field. what a great angle, he can get there with his legs as well as passing. He has 2 great receivers to pass too.
Justin Fields QB, Jets
Winning the Milly Maker often requires thinking outside the box, and I construct rosters with a target outcome of 214 points.
The success of this approach varies—sometimes it proves effective, while other times it doesn’t. But, I am playing for first place. If you’re curious about what I mean by this, check out this site for further details.. “Playing For First’ in NFL.”
Side Note: I feel very uncomfortable about the lineup below, but that is a good thing, because if I am right I have a great chance to hit for first place.
Afterall, I am going up against in the Milly Maker over 300,000 lineups. My lineup most be different to win.
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Here’s One of My Lineups in Week 1
Quarterback: Justin Fields ($5,400)
2025 Season Performance
I chose Justin Fields in week 1 it turned out great, lets go back to the well. He Completed 16 of 22 passes for 218 yards, 1 passing touchdown, 0 interceptions . Rushed 12 times for 48 yards and 2 rushing touchdowns. His dual-threat ability makes him a tournament-winning QB because he can rack up points both through the air and on the ground. At only $5,400, Fields offers ceiling potential similar to higher-priced QBs, creating salary flexibility to stack up other positions.
Why He Can Win You the Milly
If Fields connects on a deep ball or runs in a score (or two), he can easily hit 25+ fantasy points and outscore QBs $2–3K more expensive. That leverage creates massive upside in a GPP.
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Running Backs: Breece Hall ($6,200) & Dylan Sampson ($5,200)
Running Back: Breece Hall ($6,200)
2025 Season Performance:
Hall remains the focal point of the Jets’ offense, handling both ground and receiving work. In 2024, he racked up 1,055 rushing yards, 402 receiving yards, and 9 total touchdowns across 17 games. His ability to break long runs and stay heavily involved on third downs makes him one of the safest RB2 plays on the slate.
Week 1 vs. Steelers: 19 carries for 107 yards, plus 2 receptions for 38 yards. He remains the Jets’ offensive engine with both explosive play potential and receiving involvement.
Why He Can Win You the Milly
A multi-TD performance is always in Hall’s range of outcomes. If he busts a 50-yard touchdown or racks up 6–7 catches in a shootout, he can post 30+ DK points, becoming the difference-maker in tournaments.
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Running Back: Dylan Sampson ($5,200)
2025 Season Performance
Sampson, the explosive Tennessee product, is working into an NFL rotation as a change-of-pace back with home-run potential. In college, he showcased burst and pass-catching chops. Early NFL returns show he’s used in high-leverage spots, particularly near the goal line and on third downs.
The rookie flashed burst in his NFL debut, logging 9 carries for 47 yards and catching 3 passes for 29 yards. While part of a committee, his speed and red-zone potential make him a sneaky mid-tier RB.
Why He Can Win You the Milly
At a mid-tier salary, Sampson doesn’t need 25 touches. A single long touchdown run or 5-catch game can push him into 20+ DK points. If he vultures a TD or two while the field overlooks him, he becomes the slate-breaker.
Wide Receivers: Garrett Wilson ($6,300), Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($4,800), Keon Coleman ($5,100)
Wide Receiver: Garrett Wilson ($6,300)
2025 Season Performance
Wilson has fully embraced his WR1 role with Justin Fields under center. In 2024, he tallied 1,198 receiving yards and 7 touchdowns on 142 targets. His elite route running, contested-catch ability, and high target share give him one of the best floors among mid-priced WRs.
Week 1 vs. Steelers: 7 receptions, 95 yards, 1 TD on 9 targets. Clear WR1 for the Jets and the top stack partner with Fields.
Why He Can Win You the Milly
If the Jets fall behind, Wilson could see 12–15 targets in a pass-heavy script. A double-digit reception game with 100+ yards and a TD puts him in the 30-point range, making him a must-have for winning lineups.
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Wide Receiver: Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($4,800)
2025 Season Performance
JSN flashed in 2024 with 721 yards and 5 touchdowns while operating as Seattle’s WR3. Coming into 2025, he’s stepping into an expanded role with more slot snaps and potential WR2 usage. At his price point, he brings both safety (through short targets) and sneaky ceiling if he hits a long play.
Week 1 vs. Broncos: 6 receptions, 72 yards. Operating as Seattle’s WR2/slot weapon, JSN offers mid-range value with breakout potential.
Why He Can Win You the Milly
If JSN turns volume into efficiency — say 8 catches for 100 yards and a score — he smashes his modest salary and opens up cap for stars elsewhere. He’s the perfect low-owned WR who can flip GPPs upside down.
Wide Receiver: Keon Coleman ($5,100)
2025 Season Performance
Coleman quickly earned Josh Allen’s trust, leading Buffalo in Week 1 with 9 targets, 6 receptions, and 82 yards. As a big-bodied red-zone weapon, he profiles as a high-leverage tournament piece. His usage suggests he’s more than just a field-stretcher — he’s becoming Allen’s go-to in critical situations.
Week 1 vs. Ravens: 8 catches, 112 yards, 1 TD on 11 targets. Quickly emerging as Josh Allen’s go-to weapon in Buffalo’s passing game.
Why He Can Win You the Milly
At a modest price, Coleman only needs one long TD or a multi-touchdown game to bury the field. If he emerges as Allen’s 1A, he’ll be drastically under-owned relative to his ceiling.
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Tight End: Dalton Kincaid ($3,700)
2025 Season Performance
Kincaid entered 2024 as Buffalo’s short-area chain-mover, finishing with 762 yards and 6 touchdowns on 87 receptions. He’s priced affordably and offers a high floor due to steady target volume in the middle of the field. In PPR scoring, 5–7 catches is always in play.
Week 1 He caught 4 passes on 4 targets for 48 yards and 1 touchdown vs. the Ravens. hat gives him an average of 12.0 yards per reception.
Why He Can Win You the Milly
If Kincaid secures a red-zone touchdown on top of his steady receptions, he easily clears 20 DK points at a sub-$4K salary. That kind of TE production provides a massive edge in GPPs.
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FLEX: Wide Receiver: Zay Flowers ($6,200)
2025 Season Performance
Flowers took over as Lamar Jackson’s WR1 in 2024, posting 987 yards and 8 touchdowns. His ability to win on quick routes and deep posts makes him a dangerous option every week. Baltimore continues to design touches for him, ensuring a solid floor and an elite ceiling.
Week 1 vs. Browns: 5 catches, 66 yards, 1 TD on 9 targets. Flowers is Lamar Jackson’s #1 option and brings explosive play ability every week.
Why He Can Win You the Milly
If Flowers connects on a long bomb or stacks multiple touchdowns, he offers slate-breaking upside. In a game with shootout potential, a 30+ DK point outing from Flowers makes him a lineup winner.
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Defense/Special Teams: Denver Broncos ($3,800)
2025 Season Performance
The Broncos defense enters 2025 as one of the most opportunistic units in the league. In 2024, they finished top-10 in sacks (47) and ranked near the top in defensive touchdowns with 3 pick-sixes. Rookie corner Pat Surtain II emerged as a true difference-maker, and the front seven consistently created pressure, forcing opponents into mistakes.
How They Did Last Week (vs. Raiders)
- Allowed 22 points
- Recorded 4 sacks
- Forced 3 turnovers (2 interceptions, 1 fumble recovery)
- Scored 1 defensive touchdown (100-yard interception return by Surtain II)
They finished with 16 DraftKings points, one of the top DST scores of the week.
Why They Can Win You the Milly
The Broncos defense has both a floor (steady pressure, sack production) and a massive ceiling (turnover return scores). If they repeat their Week 1 dominance with multiple takeaways and another splash play touchdown, they can separate your lineup in large-field GPPs.
✅ Why This Lineup Can Win the Milly
This build combines Justin Fields’ dual-threat upside with his top target Garrett Wilson, creating a stack capable of 50+ combined fantasy points. Adding Breece Hall gives the Jets’ offensive workhorse with explosive big-play ability, while Dylan Sampson provides sneaky value and touchdown equity at a lower salary.
The wide receiver corps of Keon Coleman, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and Zay Flowers balances volume, youth, and game-breaking potential — each with the ability to deliver a slate-breaking performance.
Finally, the Broncos defense adds turnover and touchdown upside after a dominant Week 1 showing. It’s a ceiling-driven roster where every piece has the path to 20+ fantasy points, making it the kind of balanced yet explosive build that can capture the Milly.
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MONDAY RECAP
How I did Boom or Bust; “Monday Morning Quarterbacking”
Hello, all it’s a Monday and time to look back and say to myself, what I should’ve, could’ve, and would’ve done differently, as a DFS player.
I used to spend most of my time looking forward to the next slate, the next season, and so forth. I find it equally important to stop, take a breath, and start looking back at the process that led me to a winning or losing lineup.
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Here are my thoughts on this lineup.
✅ Why This Lineup Failed
Quarterback: Justin Fields ($5,700, 13.2% owned) – 4.98 DK points
Instead of unlocking his ceiling, Fields got game-scripted out. The Jets’ offensive line couldn’t handle Buffalo’s pressure, forcing Fields into short, check-down throws. His stat line — just 27 passing yards and one fumble — meant zero stacking upside with Garrett Wilson. Without a rushing TD, he was dead weight.
Running Back 1: Breece Hall ($6,200, 19.0% owned) – 5.80 DK points
Hall was popular but ineffective. With the Jets trailing early, the run game disappeared. He managed only 38 total yards and caught just two passes. His lack of red-zone work killed the play, especially at 20% ownership.
Running Back 2: Dylan Sampson ($5,200, 2.1% owned) – 10.90 DK points
A bright spot. Sampson scored a TD and paid off as a contrarian low-owned dart. But at only ~11 DK points, he didn’t separate enough from the field to swing the lineup.
Wide Receiver 1: Garrett Wilson ($6,500, 15.8% owned) – 9.00 DK points
Tied directly to Fields’ struggles. With only 4 catches for 50 yards, he offered no ceiling. The stack fizzled because Buffalo’s defense dominated and capped Wilson’s volume.
Wide Receiver 2: Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($6,000, 17.6% owned) – 21.30 DK points
This was the right call. JSN finally broke out with 100+ yards and 8 catches. But without correlated pieces from Seattle (like Geno Smith), his performance became a lone spike in an otherwise dead lineup.
Wide Receiver 3: Keon Coleman ($5,100, 12.4% owned) – 5.60 DK points
Another casualty of the Jets’ offensive collapse. Only 3 catches for 26 yards. At double-digit ownership, he didn’t pay off and further sunk the stack.
Tight End: Dalton Kincaid ($3,700, 8.4% owned) – 7.70 DK points
A reasonable salary saver, but didn’t separate. In a Bills onslaught, he was overshadowed by the WRs. Needed a TD to break the slate.
FLEX: Zay Flowers ($6,200, 9.3% owned) – 14.90 DK points
Solid play. Flowers gave me a decent floor/ceiling with 7 catches for 75 yards. But he wasn’t paired with Lamar Jackson, so the correlation angle was lost.
Defense: Broncos DST ($3,500, 4.8% owned) – 0.00 DK points
Absolute killer. Giving up 29 points, recording only 1 sack, and scoring zero DK points destroyed any shot of climbing leaderboards. I needed a DST with turnover or TD upside to separate.
📉 The Core Problems
- Jets Onslaught Stack Flopped – Fields, Hall, Wilson, Coleman were all tied to a dead offense that scored only 10 points. When the stack dies, the lineup dies.
- No Leverage/Bring-Back –I had Buffalo exposure only through Kincaid, missing Josh Allen/Stefon Diggs, who were the actual slate winners.
- Defense Sunk Me – Broncos scored zero, while the top GPP defenses (like the Ravens or 49ers) dropped 15+. That’s a 15-20 point swing.
- Not Enough Ceilings – Only JSN hit 20+, and that wasn’t enough to carry five players under 10 DK points.
🏆 Lesson for Next Build
Balance Ownership + Ceiling: I had good ownership pivots (Sampson, Flowers), but they didn’t have enough raw ceiling.
Correlated Stacks Must Hit: If I stack a team, I need the QB/WR/RB to smash together. If the offense busts, pivot.
Prioritize Ceiling Defenses: Always target defenses with sack/turnover upside. Paying down is fine, but never punt correlation upside.
Here’s a Breakdown of My lineup and their Fantasy Points:
NFL $3.5M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st]
- : points (QB)
- : points (RB)
- : points (RB)
- points (WR)
- : points (WR)
- : points (WR)
- : points (TE)
- : points (Flex)
- : points (DST)
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The NFL $3.5M Fantasy Football Millionaire winning Lineup
On to Week 3 we go!
Watch this Space!